Climate‐informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou

Abstract

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of Frances E. C. Stewart and Tatiane Micheletti share first authorship.

Dense neural network outperforms other machine learning models for scaling-up lichen cover maps in Eastern Canada

“…Erlandsson et al reported that the design of the datasets was likely unable to compensate for spatial autocorrelation and that the results are suspected to be overly optimistic [29]. The low number of training samples (3,290) and complex structure of this model may also indicate an overdetermined CNN, further supporting the authors' conclusion.…”

“…In 2016, Rangifer tarandus, commonly known as the caribou, was categorized as a vulnerable species due to an observed decline of 40% between the 1990s and 2015 [1]. Caribou populations are threatened by changes to their habitat, unregulated hunting, and herd fragmentation due to human-made infrastructure [1][2][3]. Terricolous (ground-dwelling) lichen is a primary food source for caribou, comprising 75% and 25% of their winter and summer diets respectively [2].…”

“…In recent decades, ecological and climate changes in the caribou habitat, such as the expansion of shrublands and managed forests, have reduced the abundance of lichen in caribou ranges [4][5][6]. The increasing frequency, pollution, severity, and spatial extent of forest fires in the boreal region have also impacted the availability of lichen, as lichen requires decades to fully recover [3][4][5]7]. Mapping and monitoring lichen availability are thus critical for informing sustainable land management policy and caribou recovery plans.…”