Theoretical uncertainties for global satellite-derived burned area estimates

Abstract

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Quantitative information on the error properties of global satellite-derived burned area estimates is essential for the scientific application of these datasets. We estimate theoretical uncertainties for three global satellite-derived burned area products using a multiplicative triple collocation error model. The approach provides unique uncertainties at 1° for the MODIS Collection 6 burned area product (MCD64); the MODIS Collection 5.1 MCD45 product and the FireCCI50 product. Theoretical uncertainties indicate constraints on mean global burned area for three product of 3.76 ± 0.15 x 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup> for MCD64, 3.70 ± 0.17 x 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup> for FireCCI50, and 3.31 ± 0.18 x 10<sup>6</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. These correspond to relative uncertainties of 4–5.5 % and also indicate previous uncertainty estimates to be under-estimated. Relative uncertainties in frequently burning regions of Africa and Australia are typically 8–10 % and higher in regions with smaller annual burned area. The proposed method provides uncertainties amenable to both modelling studies and for the validation of current burned area products.</p>