The War in Europe: Economic Costs of the Ukrainian Conflict

Bluszcz, Julia; Valente, Marica

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3392199

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Russia has historically been the European Union's largest supplier of natural gas (Maltby, 2013). After the 2006 and 2009 Russia-Ukraine-Europe gas disputes (Fernández Carvajal et al, 2020), followed by tensions in the wake of the 2013-2014 Ukrainian crisis (Bluszcz & Valente, 2019), the EU has sought to reduce its dependency on Russian natural gas imports (Maltby, 2013). However, Russia continues to supply around 40% of EU gas consumption (Figure 1).…”

Section: Eu's Supply Diversification and Demand Curtailment Optionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Europe live without Russian natural gas?

et al. 2023

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This paper analyses the implications of a complete halt of natural gas flows from Russia to the European Union (EU).The most challenging time horizon for the EU will be the winter of 2022/23 due to the little time available to roll out necessary measures to diversify the gas supply and develop alternatives to Russian gas. We explore supply availability and constraints as well as demand curtailment options.The challenge of refilling EU gas storage levels at the current abnormal prices for natural gas is also addressed.Finally, we consider the Russian standpoint and whether they would be able to redirect gas flows where European demand to suddenly dry up.

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Section: Eu's Supply Diversification and Demand Curtailment Optionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Europe live without Russian natural gas?

et al. 2023

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“…Within the framework of the first direction of research, the works [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11] should be highlighted. and the Russian Federation in 2014-2019 during the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict.…”

Section: Literature Review and Problem Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The article [6] substantiates the invasion of Russia due to a shortage of resources in the military-industrial sphere, the replenishment of which occurs through the control of Ukrainian resources. Calculation of economic losses of Ukraine as a result of military intervention carried out in [7]. In the article [8] it is proved that in Ukraine there was a decrease in the financial well-being of the population along with deterioration in the state of health throughout the territory, and in Russia -only in the border region.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns identification in the dynamics of countries’ technological development in the context of military conflict

Prokopenko

Bezliudnyi

Omelyanenko

et al. 2021

EEJET

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A comparative assessment of the dynamics of technological development of Ukraine and Russia for 2014–2019 has been carried out in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war. A method for assessing the economic losses of the conflicting parties due to a slowdown in their technological development, under the influence of militarization, based on the parameter of technological progress of the Solow-Tinbergen production function, built according to the World Bank 1991–2019 data, was proposed and tested. It is substantiated that during the Russian-Ukrainian war, starting from 2015, the technological development of the Russian Federation was curtailed and the economy transitioned to an extensive basis, when the parameter of technological progress acquired a negative value. In the case of Ukraine, a deterioration in technological development was detected due to a decrease in the values of the parameter of technological progress during 2014–2019. It has been proven that the economic recession of the aggressor is the worst in comparison with the victim country, but the relative losses of GDP due to the curtailment of technological development caused by the war are much less. In the case of the Russian Federation as an aggressor country, it is substantiated that the main catalyst for the economic recession was the curtailment of the participation of the real sector of the economy in the international transfer of technologies under the influence of international economic sanctions. In the case of Ukraine, as a country-victim of military intervention, it is justified that the replacement of international partnership in the field of technological cooperation ensured a slowdown in the economic recession. The results of the development of methodological support for the process of assessing GDP losses of the parties to a military conflict are universal for use in international comparisons. The proposed methods are relevant in assessing the technological development of countries that are or were in a state of military confrontation, which significantly expands the basis for future research by the authors

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“…Two years after the conflict began Published by ECSDEV, Via dei Fiori, 34, 00172, Rome, Italy http://ecsdev.org the estimates rose to $ 60-72 billion (Kasperovich, 2018;Aslund, 2018), though some $ 300 billion in estimates have been published (Kravchenko, 2018). In 2019, more thorough research has summarized material losses in the range of $ 32-$ 90 billion (Vyshnevskyi, 2019;Prokaza, 2019;Bluszcz and Valente, 2019;Pashkov (eds. ), 2019).…”

Section: Criteria Defining For the Military Conflict Impact On The Lomentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable Development Management of Local Territories in the Eastern Ukraine in Conditions of Military Conflict: Identification Criteria

Rohozian¹,

Hrechana²,

Kuzmenko³

et al. 2020

EJSD

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Decentralization, which has begun and continues in Ukraine, has raised the living standards of local people to a new level by updating tools and methods of managing the sustainable development of such territories, updating a particularly balanced approach to planning and finding reliable sources. In this context, it is advisable to identify qualitatively the local area, which is not only a guarantee of their subjectivity and sustainability, but also the basis for the strategies forming for their socio-economic development, the realism and effectiveness of which is based on sustainable development management as well as administrative and financial capacity of communities. However, as practice has shown, most local areas, although willing to identify their unique features, but do not know how to do it, because the current legal field in Ukraine does not regulate the procedure and criteria for such identification. This article was an attempt to research the managerial possibilities of creating a positive image of the territory through the sustainable development and choice of appropriate assessment parameters – the criteria for identifying the amalgamated territorial communities of Ukraine as local territories. As a result of the research, a model list of such criteria is proposed, which is sufficiently universal to determine the unique and typical characteristics of any territories, and also contains a specific subsystem that allows reflecting the individual features of territories close to the armed conflict zone in the Eastern Ukraine. Using this list will allow communities to form one or more images of the local area: from formal (real) to imaginary and special. It will help improve the results of communities and territories identification, the foundation for the sustainable development with marketing measures to promote communities as well as the formation of management decisions for their strategic and sustainable development, which will be best adapted to the realities of the current armed conflict. Keyword: sustainable development management, identification criteria, local territories, amalgamated territorial communities, military conflict

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The War in Europe: Economic Costs of the Ukrainian Conflict

Cited by 13 publications

References 19 publications

Can Europe live without Russian natural gas?

Can Europe live without Russian natural gas?

Patterns identification in the dynamics of countries’ technological development in the context of military conflict

Sustainable Development Management of Local Territories in the Eastern Ukraine in Conditions of Military Conflict: Identification Criteria

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