The Usual Suspects: Prior Criminal Record and the Probability of Arrest

Abstract

A unique dataset is analyzed to investigate the effect of a criminal suspect’s prior criminal record on the probability of arrest. Multivariate logistic regression results show that a criminal suspect with a prior criminal record is approximately 29 times more likely than a suspect without a criminal record to be arrested by police. While findings also reveal that Black suspects and Black suspects with a prior criminal record do not have an enhanced proclivity of arrest, Black suspects with a prior criminal record who target White victims are almost three times more apt to be arrested. When juxtaposed with the finding in the baseline model of a substantive relationship between a suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest absent the control for prior criminal record, our results suggest that any correlation evinced between a criminal suspect’s race and the likelihood of arrest without controlling for the suspect’s prior criminal history may be spurious due to omitted variable bias.

Market Dynamics and Systemic Violence: A Longitudinal Examination of Market Penetration, Entry Deterrence, and Excess Capacity in the Illicit Drug Market

“…Whereas some studies suggest that repeat offenders have an enhanced proclivity of arrest because of inexperience (Topalli, 2005), others argue the exact opposite (Dana, 2001). For example, a recent study found that criminal suspects with a prior criminal record have a 29% greater chance of being arrested by police than suspects without a criminal record, even after controlling for the suspect’s race and other relevant factors (Stolzenberg et al, 2020). Thus, because the extant literature is mixed, we can elicit no convincing theoretical rationale for why more or less drug enforcement would affect first-time and repeat offending differently.…”

The Effect of Reading Prisoner Poetry on Stigma and Public Attitudes: Results from a Multigroup Survey Experiment

“…While prosocial networks are important to the reentry process (Hirschi, 1969; Sampson & Laub, 1993), public perceptions broadcast a preference to maintain social distance from FIP (Hirschfield & Piquero, 2010; Zevitz & Farkas, 2000). Additionally, police are more likely to decide to arrest an individual who has a previous arrest record (Stolzenberg et al, 2020). Finally, the stigma of incarceration can influence whether the public supports public policy initiatives that help facilitate reentry (Dum et al, 2017).…”

“…Thus, a criminal conviction becomes a deeply discrediting attribute that can negatively impact future life chances (Link & Phelan, 2001). The feeling of stigma that members of the public have of FIP can determine their ability to find jobs (Pager, 2003), to secure housing (Israelsen-Hartley, 2008), to return to imprisonment (Stolzenberg et al, 2020), and to engage in social networks (Hirschfield & Piquero, 2010), all of which are important aspects of reentry.…”

Racial bias and DUI enforcement: Comparing conviction rates with frequency of behavior

“…Despite this challenge, numerous studies have sought to tackle the question of the existence and extent of racism in the criminal justice system. Research using regression adjustment to estimate the probability, conditional on initial contact with the police, of being searched or arrested as a function of race and other observable characteristics has generated mixed evidence (Gelman et al, 2007;Stolzenberg et al, 2020). This regression approach is susceptible to the methodological criticism that any estimated effect might actually be explained by variables (unobserved by the researcher) that are omitted from the regression and that correlate with race.…”