The Use of the Gravity Model in Forecasting the Flows of Emigrants in Eu Countries

Iancu, Nicolaie; Bădulescu, Alina; Urziceanu, Ramona-Mihaela; Iancu, Elena-Ana; Simuț, Ramona

doi:10.3846/20294913.2016.1213194

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…Because of limited access or incomplete statistical data, Romanian migration flows were analyzed only to certain EU countries, and at the EU-27 level, for the period 1995-2014. The analysis showed that for every 1% increase in unemployment, the number of emigrants increased by 2.57 [54]. The flow of migrants from region/country i to region/country j in time t is given by: (10) where Y it /Y it means the income in location i/j at time t, A it /A jt are amenities in i/j at time t, C ijt are the costs of moving from location i to j, g t is a time effect variable, f ij are specific effects, and ε ijt is the error term.…”

Section: Gravity Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction

Huang

Yang

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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As a fundamental, holistic, and strategic issue facing human society, human migration is a key factor affecting the development of countries and cities, given the constantly changing population numbers. The fuzziness of the spatiotemporal attributes of human migration limits the pool of open-source data for human migration prediction, leading to a relative lag in human migration prediction algorithm research. This study expands the definition of human migration research, reviews the progress of research into human migration prediction, and classifies and compares human migration algorithms based on open-source data. It also explores the critical uncertainty factors restricting the development of human migration prediction. Based on the analysis, there is no “best” migration prediction model, and data are key to forecasting human migration. Social media’s popularity and its increase in data have enabled the application of artificial intelligence in population migration prediction, which has attracted the attention of researchers and government administrators. Future research will aim to incorporate uncertainty into the predictive analysis framework, and explore the characteristics of population migration behaviors and their interactions. The integration of machine-learning and traditional data-driven models will provide a breakthrough for this purpose.

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Section: Gravity Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction

Huang

Yang

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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“…internal migration, long-term, [29] ; international migration, long-term, [30]; international migration, long-term, [31] international migration, short-term, [32]; international migration, long-term, [33]; international migration, long-term, [34]; international migration, long-term, [35]; international migration, long-term, [36]; international migration, long-term, [37]. internal migration, long-term, [38]; international migration, long-term, [39]; international migration, long-term, [40] ; international migration, long-term, [41]; international migration, short-term, [42]. internal migration, short-term, [43]; international migration, short-term, [44]; international migration, long-term, [45]; international migration, long-term, [46]; international migration, long-term, [47]; international migration, long and shortterm, [48]; international migration, longterm, [49]; internal migration, short-term, [50]; internal migration, short and longterm, [51].…”

Section: Research Progressmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transcending Time and Space: A Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction

Pu¹,

Huang²,

Yang³

et al. 2023

Preprint

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As a fundamental, overall, and strategic issue facing human society, human migration is a key factor affecting the development of countries and cities given constantly changing population numbers. The fuzziness of the spatiotemporal attributes of human migration limits the pool of open-source data for human migration prediction, leading to a relative lag in human migration prediction algorithm research. This study expands the definition of human migration research, reviews the progress of research into human migration prediction, and classifies and compares human migration algorithms based on open-source data. It also explores the critical uncertainty factors restricting the development of human migration prediction. Given the effect of human migration prediction, in combination with artificial intelligence and big data technology, the paper concludes with specific suggestions and countermeasures aimed at enhancing human migration prediction research results to serve economic and social development and national strategy.

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“…Of the countries of the European Union Romania has lost most of its population in the past decade, with 17 percent of their citizens leaving the country and Poland is the second in terms of the dynamics of emigration after Syria as it was pointed out by Lazarescu (2015) in an examination of an organisation (CDCDI) to examine the integration of Romanian employees. The analysis of Iancu et al (2017) on the factors influencing foreign employment suggests that with the increase in Romanian GDP, industrial employment and foreign investment, the number of emigrants began to decline. It has also been shown that a 1% increase in unemployment leads to 2.57 emigrants.…”

Section: Labour Market Mobility Nowadaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Central-East European employees on the labour market of London

2018

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Purpose – The purpose of our exploratory research was to get acquainted with the socio-demographic characteristics, motivations, workplace conditions and social participation of foreign workers from different Central and Eastern European countries to London. Design/methodology/approach – The survey was conducted as a questionnaire in London, in English and Hungarian. The sample (n = 307) is based on individuals coming from different countries to London who are legally working. The pattern came through personal relationships. Examining the characteristics of the examined sample with descriptive statistics and the relationship between the examined quality variables were analysed by a Chi-square test. The investigation is primarily exploratory, but it also reveals some cause and effect relationships. Findings – Our study gives an overview of the motivation, characteristics and integration of the Central-East European employees in England in a theoretical and empirical context and publishes the main findings of the examinations on integration. In general, it can be stated that social integration was achieved to a certain extent in the case of the examined sample. The research and analysis are justified by the globalisation of the labour market and the increasing transnational migration. Research limitations/implications – The review aims at detail and thoroughness, but it is not complete. The findings at the end of the analysis are rather thought provoking, but we hope that we can also contribute to scientific and everyday discourse on migration. Practical implications – The conclusions of the study provide an adequate framework for the development of a rational economic policy program, which is the basis for future development, for the conscious development of the future of our region. Originality/Value – The novelty of the study lies in the composition of the sample on the one hand, and on the other hand, the study mainly focuses on the labour market. Keywords: Central and Eastern European employees, integration, labour migration, geographic mobility. Research type: research paper. JEL classification: J15 – Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labour Discrimination J61 – Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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The Use of the Gravity Model in Forecasting the Flows of Emigrants in Eu Countries

Cited by 6 publications

References 13 publications

Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction

Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction

Transcending Time and Space: A Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction

Central-East European employees on the labour market of London

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