The unbearable lightness of luck: Three sources of overconfidence in the manageability of nuclear crises

Pélopidas, Benoît

doi:10.1017/eis.2017.6

Cited by 20 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Analysts have been strikingly reluctant to face these facts (Pelopidas, 2017). Noting efforts to avoid war on both sides of the Iron Curtain, Schroeder (1985, p. 87, emphasis in original) insists that it is not ‘only luck [that has] kept the world from nuclear holocaust’.…”

Section: Not Whether But Whenmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear war as a predictable surprise

Rendall

2022

Global Policy

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Like asteroids, hundred-year floods and pandemic disease, thermonuclear war is a low-frequency, high-impact threat. In the long run, catastrophe is inevitable if nothing is done − yet each successive government and generation may fail to address it. Drawing on risk perception research, this paper argues that psychological biases cause the threat of nuclear war to receive less attention than it deserves. Nuclear deterrence is, moreover, a 'front-loaded good': its benefits accrue disproportionately to proximate generations, whereas much of the expected cost will be borne in the distant future. Recent surveys indicate that the US and Russian publics assign a surprisingly high likelihood to nuclear war.Nevertheless, earlier research suggests that it is probably not believed to be just around the corner. This, along with the absence of easy solutions, encourages governments and publics to give priority to more pressing concerns. The danger is that the pattern will continue clear up to the point that nuclear war arrives.

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Section: Not Whether But Whenmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear war as a predictable surprise

Rendall

2022

Global Policy

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“…Fourteen million people died, indirectly or directly, as a result of the previous Cold War (Chamberlin 2018 ). On numerous occasions, the Cold War almost ended in nuclear holocaust (Chang and He 1993 ; Pelopidas 2017 ; Downing 2018 ). Statistical analysis indicates that Great Power war was as much avoided by chance as contrivance (Braumoeller 2019 ).…”

Section: Three Species Of Nationalism In the Contemporary Indo-pacificmentioning

confidence: 99%

Homogenizing nationalists, budding fascists, and truculent exceptionalists: the end of world order in the Indo-Pacific

McKinney

2021

Int Polit

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Building on Ernest Gellner’s theory of the nation-state and drawing on insights from John Lukacs and George Kennan, this article contends that the major powers of the contemporary Indo-Pacific are characterized by conflicting nationalisms. Homogenizing nationalism seeks to form China—a former multiethnic empire—into a unitary nation-state. Budding fascism endeavors to transform India—founded as a secular state—into a Hindu nation in which there is little place for the ‘other.’ And in the USA, truculent exceptionalism readily acknowledges that coexistence with China is no longer possible in the long run. All three powers have an alternative that they might embrace: toleration. But civility, in both domestic and international politics, is increasingly rare. The future of world order in the Indo-Pacific does not look bright.

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“…Most commentators think that miscalculation or accident is the most likely progenitor of a nuclear strike, by a considerable margin; if that is true, then nonuse of nuclear weapons for 75 years has been the result mostly of luck rather than judgement (Pelopidas 2017).…”

Section: How Might a Nuclear Incident Arise?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear war, public health, the COVID-19 epidemic: Lessons for prevention, preparation, mitigation, and education

Futter¹,

Watson

Chilton

et al. 2020

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

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The current COVID-19 pandemic has focused attention on the vulnerability of the human race in the face of communicable disease. But the pandemic also serves as a wakeup call to the cataclysmic impact that would befall the world if nuclear weapons were ever to be used again. Overwhelming pressure on health-services, considerable disruption to normal life, difficult choices regarding suspension of civil liberties, how to protect key workers and ensure society continues to function-these would all be magnified many times over in the event of a nuclear explosion. Thus, in addition to refocusing attention on the prevention and mitigation of global pandemics, the lessons of the current crisis are much more wide-ranging, and should lead to a renewal of public education, interest, and activism in reducing nuclear dangers.

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The unbearable lightness of luck: Three sources of overconfidence in the manageability of nuclear crises

Cited by 20 publications

References 34 publications

Nuclear war as a predictable surprise

Nuclear war as a predictable surprise

Homogenizing nationalists, budding fascists, and truculent exceptionalists: the end of world order in the Indo-Pacific

Nuclear war, public health, the COVID-19 epidemic: Lessons for prevention, preparation, mitigation, and education

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