Nuclear war as a predictable surprise

Abstract

Like asteroids, hundred-year floods and pandemic disease, thermonuclear war is a low-frequency, high-impact threat. In the long run, catastrophe is inevitable if nothing is done − yet each successive government and generation may fail to address it. Drawing on risk perception research, this paper argues that psychological biases cause the threat of nuclear war to receive less attention than it deserves. Nuclear deterrence is, moreover, a 'front-loaded good': its benefits accrue disproportionately to proximate generations, whereas much of the expected cost will be borne in the distant future. Recent surveys indicate that the US and Russian publics assign a surprisingly high likelihood to nuclear war.Nevertheless, earlier research suggests that it is probably not believed to be just around the corner. This, along with the absence of easy solutions, encourages governments and publics to give priority to more pressing concerns. The danger is that the pattern will continue clear up to the point that nuclear war arrives.

Impact of the Russian–Ukrainian War on the National Economy of Russia

“…Another danger that the Ukrainian–Russian confrontation carries, which is mentioned and evaluated by Rendall (2022), is the use of nuclear weapons and the beginning of nuclear war. The scientist notes that it is practically impossible to be protected or prepared for such a threat: If the probability of a comet falling on the planet Earth or the impact of a pandemic or other diseases can be determined in advance and prepared for them, then such a phenomenon as a nuclear war will be virtually impossible to stop once it begins and this is guaranteed to result in multimillion-dollar casualties (Chapman & Morrison, 1994; Osterholm & Olshaker, 2020).…”

“…In turn, Pereira et al (2022) consider the ecological dangers for Ukraine, Russia and the whole world that may be caused in connection with the Russian–Ukrainian war. Importantly, Rendall (2022) assesses the likelihood of a nuclear disaster due to the Russian–Ukrainian war, its consequences and actions that should probably be taken now in order to protect ourselves from it. In turn, Astrov et al (2022) studied the general impact of the Russian–Ukrainian war on the economy of these countries and the world economy as a whole, and Prohorovs (2022) studied the problems due to the war, which became most characteristic of the countries of Europe.…”

Post-nuclear worldmaking and counter-hegemony: Against catastrophic failures of imagination

“…17 This is insufficient, because regardless of our ordering efforts, adhering to nuclear deterrence ensures the use of nuclear weapons is a guaranteed occurrence over a long enough timespan -even if cognitive and ideological biases convince us otherwise. 18 Research has begun to connect the concept of global nuclear order to Cox's insights on hegemony and international relations theory 19 and pays closer attention to the exercises of power which uphold the order. 20 Biswas offers the most significant deconstruction of Walker's thinking, applying post-colonial and post-Marxist theory to examine the systems of meaning and ideological legitimation which bolster a hierarchical and neocolonial order.…”

Beliefs about the end of humanity: How bad, likely, and important is human extinction?

“…The ability of humanity to cause its own extinction is unprecedented and the risks are conceptually abstract (Martínez & Winter, 2022). This is at odds with people's tendency to rely on personal experience, emotion, and ease of imagination to guide their risk judgments (Knuth et al, 2014;Loewenstein et al, 2001;Rendall, 2022;Slovic, 1987). These factors highlight the relevance of investigating how people think about the importance of such an extreme but uncertain risk.…”