The twin deficit hypothesis in Egypt

Helmy, Heba E.

doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.01.009

Cited by 25 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…Bagheri, Keshtkaran, andHazrati (2012), Baharumsha et al (2009), Banday and Aneja (2019), Constantinos and Emmanouil (2011), Corsetti, and M¨uller, G. J. (2008), Fidrmuc (2003, Jayaraman, Choong, and Law (2010), Makin and Narayan (2013), Salvatore (2006) has observed that BD has positive impact on CAD and they have validated occurrence of the TDH, while some other studies such as Helmy (2018), Kalou and Paleologou (2012), Khalid and Guan (1999) and Kouassi, Mougoue, and Kymn (2004) supported for the current account targeting hypothesis (CATH). In this case, CAD influences BD, whereas Islam (1998) found support for bi-directional nexus between the BD and CAD.…”

Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 86%

Ricardian equivalence, Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and twin deficit hypothesis in Indian context: An empirical study

Badaik

Panda

2020

Journal of Public Affairs

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The paper investigates the twin deficit hypothesis in case of India. Furthermore, this paper examines the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle to complement the twin deficit hypothesis. To substantiate objectives, annual time series data for the period 1970 to 2012 have been used. Time series econometrics techniques such as vector autoregressive model and auto regressive distributive lag model have been employed wherever necessary. The empirical findings suggest the rejection of twin deficit hypothesis and Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. However, it validates the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis i.e the fiscal deficit does not affect the current account deficit. Fiscal deficit retaining strategy may not be all in controlling current account deficit, than taking wholesome strategy that includes export promotion.

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Section: Review Of Literaturementioning

confidence: 86%

Ricardian equivalence, Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and twin deficit hypothesis in Indian context: An empirical study

Badaik

Panda

2020

Journal of Public Affairs

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“…Goswami & Nath (2021) show that the comparative advantage (CA) measures for India's merchandise trade with high, middle income, and least developed countries indicate that India has always had CA over all three groups in animal, food products, and textiles and clothing, and comparative disadvantage in wood. Helmy (2018) found cointegration exists between the budget deficit and the merchandise trade deficit. Kupfer et al (2017) found that an increase of merchandise trade will lead to a higher increase of air freight in the short-run than in the long run, furthermore, the share of manufactures in merchandise trade, the price of oil and the air freight yield turned out to be variables that influence air freight development.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 92%

The Effect of Crude Oil Price on Merchandise Trade: Evidence from East Asia and Pacific

Artha

Bahri

Asri

et al. 2021

JBMR

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One of the most important production inputs is energy, particularly crude oil. The impacts of oil price fluctuations on global trade flows can be understood by the uncertainty channel, fluctuations in oil prices may create uncertainty about the future path of the oil price, causing consumers to postpone irreversible purchases of consumer durable goods, and also causing firms to postpone irreversible investments, and also recent hikes and fluctuations in oil prices since 1999 have attracted attention and invoked concerns about their devastating effects on a variety of economic activities. The objective of this research is to determine the influence of crude oil price to merchandise trade in East Asia and Pacific. This research uses quantitative methods and linear regression analysis. The results of the analysis show that there is negative and significance effect of crude oil price on merchandise trade in East Asia and Pacific for the period 1987 – 2019.

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“…À cet effet, le rétablissement de l ' équilibre de la balance des transactions courantes est subordonné au rétablissement de l ' équilibre budgétaire. Le deuxième groupe est formé des approches qui défendent la causalité inverse 3 (Helmy, 2018 ;Haberger-Laursen & Metzler, 1950). Dans ce cas, le rétablissement de l ' équilibre budgétaire est conditionné par celui de l ' équilibre de la balance des transactions courantes.…”

Section: Revue De La Littérature Sur La Validation De L ' Hypothèse D...unclassified

“…Spécifiquement, pour ce qui est de l ' hypothèse de déficits jumeaux conditionnée au niveau de la dette publique, nous retenons d ' une part, la validation de l ' hypothèse de déficits jumeaux pendant les périodes de politiques de relance budgétaire keynésienne pour les valeurs de la dette publique inférieures à son niveau optimal (Gaysset, Lagoarde-Segot, & Neaime, 2019), et d ' autre part, la validation de l ' hypothèse de déficits jumeaux pendant les consolidations budgétaires lorsque les valeurs de la dette publique deviennent supérieures à leur seuil critique comme défendu par la NAK. Par conséquent, nous rejetons donc l ' hypothèse de la causalité inverse (Helmy, 2018) et celle de l ' absence d ' un lien quelconque (Barro, 1989).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Réexamen de l'hypothèse des dèficits jumeaux dans les pays en développement : cas du Congo

Ngakosso¹

2021

RIELF

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This research paper mainly aims to re-examine the hypothesis of twin deficits in Congo using both a linear model and a threshold effect model with public debt as the threshold variable. It comes out that the two models converge and confirm the hypothesis of twin deficits in Congo. However, the only difference is that the threshold effect model determined the public debt threshold at 102.94% which changes the budget deficit path of the external deficit. This public debt threshold is much higher than the public debt sustainability threshold, which is around 40%. The difference between the two public debt thresholds has strong implications upon the economic policy. Thus, for public debt levels below 40%, the problem of rebalancing the external balance does not matter. Between 40% and 102.94%, a gradual fiscal consolidation is recommended to restore external balance. Above 102.94%, shock therapy should be considered first, then gradual fiscal consolidation should be considered when the debt falls below 102.94%.

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The twin deficit hypothesis in Egypt

Cited by 25 publications

References 15 publications

Ricardian equivalence, Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and twin deficit hypothesis in Indian context: An empirical study

Ricardian equivalence, Feldstein–Horioka puzzle and twin deficit hypothesis in Indian context: An empirical study

The Effect of Crude Oil Price on Merchandise Trade: Evidence from East Asia and Pacific

Réexamen de l'hypothèse des dèficits jumeaux dans les pays en développement : cas du Congo

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