The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe

Colantone, Italo; Stanig, Piero

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2904105

Cited by 115 publications

(113 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…The UK has voted for Brexit, the United States has elected President Trump, Marine LePen is runner‐up for French President, and an extreme Right party has won 94 seats in the Bundestag. These outcomes are widely attributed, including by populist leaders and by some economists (e.g., Colantone & Stanig, ), to the harm that globalisation has inflicted on ordinary workers in the North, a claim that is strongly rejected by other economists. The debate has returned.…”

Section: Globalisation Brexit and Trump: Debate Renewedmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 1990s trade and wages debate in retrospect

Wood

2018

World Economy

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This paper revisits the trade and wages debate of the 1990s in the light of widespread concern that, contrary to the consensus from that debate, the costs of globalisation to less‐skilled workers in developed countries have been an important cause of the recent rise of populism. The 1990s debate stimulated a new and now large field of economic research, but in hindsight it suffered from errors of omission on both sides, and from an academic perspective it ended prematurely. Even now, the available evidence does not permit any firm conclusion about the contribution of globalisation to the rise in inequality in developed countries over the past few decades. The economic consensus at the end of the debate also fostered unwarranted political complacency about the social costs of globalisation.

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Section: Globalisation Brexit and Trump: Debate Renewedmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 1990s trade and wages debate in retrospect

Wood

2018

World Economy

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“…The growing competition from China has been identified as one of the causes that reinvigorated the recent revival of trade policy measures; some researchers accuse this of driving increases in unemployment (Autor et al 2013), of lower wages (Ashournia et al 2014), and of affecting political and electoral patterns (Colantone and Stanig 2018a, Colantone and Stanig 2018b, Che et al 2016, Autor et al 2016. 1) In this paper, using a new measure of NTMs (Murina and Nicita 2017), a recently released database (UNCTAD 2017), and relying on gravity models (Baier and Bergstrand 2007, Head and Mayer 2014, Glick and Rose 2016, UNCTAD-WTO 2016, we focus on Chinese exports with two aims.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level

Timini

Conesa

2019

Journal of Economic Integration

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With international trade tariffs at historically low levels today, non-tariff measures (NTMs) play an important-and growing-role in global trade policy. Concerns about shifts in global trade policy agendas are on the rise. In this paper, we rely on a gravity model and focus on Chinese exports with two aims: the first is to test for heterogeneous effects of technical NTMs versus non-technical NTMs; the second is to verify whether the NTM's effect is influenced by the type of good (final good vs. intermediate or capital good). We find that: 1) technical NTMs tend to have positive effects on trade flows, potentially driven by improvements in consumers' confidence and by the technical capacities of Chinese exporters and 2) non-technical NTMs are particularly stringent for final goods, possibly due to political economy reasons or substitution effects.

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“…Finally, the political science literature on populism and anti-establishment voting (Arzheimer, 2012;Barr, 2009;Caiani & Graziano, 2016;Hernandez & Kriesi, 2016;Kriesi, 2014;Mudde & Rovira Kaltwasser, 2018;Schedler, 1996;Schumacher & van Kersbergen, 2016), and particularly those papers investigating the economic determinants of the rise of the current wave of populism in Western liberal democracies (Guiso, Herrera, Morelli, & Sonno, 2017;Inglehart & Norris, 2016), has been another important reference. This said, this work does not include an analysis of individual-level vote choices/preferences (as done instead by Colantone & Stanig, 2018b) nor an analysis of the perceptions of the risks associated with globalization (as in Stockemer, 2015), which are left for further research.…”

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confidence: 99%

Globalization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from Italy

Caselli

Fracasso

Traverso

2019

Economics & Politics

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We study whether and to what extent the electoral dynamics in Italy over the 1994–2008 period can be explained by the development of economic factors associated with globalization. To measure the level of exposure to globalization for local labor markets, our main unit of analysis, we use the intensity of import competition from China and the presence of immigrants. Looking at parties’ political positions and employing an estimation strategy that accounts for endogeneity and time‐invariant unobserved effects across local labor markets, we find that both immigration intensity and exposure to import competition from China have contributed positively to the electoral outcomes of far‐right parties, whereas only immigration intensity has increased the vote shares of right‐wing and traditionalist/authoritarian/nationalist parties. Some evidence, albeit not robust, shows that immigration may have also had a positive impact on far‐left parties, thus possibly further contributing toward political polarization. Moreover, electoral turnout has responded negatively to an increased presence of migrants. While the above effects seem to work through the mediation of labor markets, our results, especially those related to immigration, suggest that other mechanisms at the level of local communities are also at play.

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The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe

Cited by 115 publications

References 67 publications

The 1990s trade and wages debate in retrospect

The 1990s trade and wages debate in retrospect

Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level

Globalization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from Italy

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