The paper analyses the nonlinearities in the impact of localization, diversity, urbanization and competition on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP), using a large sample of Italian firms from 1999 to 2007. We adopt a panel smooth transition regression model, so that the TFP elasticities are free to vary smoothly across two or more extreme values. Results show that localization economies and Jacobian externalities materialize only for values of, respectively, intra-industry agglomeration and extra-sectoral diversity above a certain threshold. Local competition exerts a positive effect on productivity, even though the marginal impact shrinks at high levels of competition. We find instead no evidence of diseconomies of agglomeration.JEL classification: C23, C24, D24, R12, R15
The large current account imbalances in the eurozone reflect persistent diverging trends between core and periphery countries, also fed by low interest rates and abundant capital flows brought about by the introduction of the euro. With the global financial crisis, the market sentiment has changed, and capital has left the periphery countries suffering from debt and growth problems due to their failure to bring price-wage dynamics into uniformity with those of the more disciplined countries. Germany is called upon to provide financial assistance and additional external demand; however, though the euro is at stake, Germans are recalcitrant. This article investigates the rationale of the German stance in light of the (corporatist-etatist, neo-mercantilist) German socio-economic model and the widespread concern about losing the competitiveness that Germany regained through painful reforms and changes in the last two decades.
This paper investigates policy deviations from linear Taylor rules motivated by the risk management approach followed by the Fed during the Greenspan era. We estimate a nonlinear monetary policy rule via a logistic smoothing transition regression model where policy-makers' judgment, proxied by economically meaningful variables, drives the transition across policy regimes. We find that ignoring judgment‐induced nonlinearities while estimating Taylor rules has remarkable costs in terms of fit: above 250 bps in 10 quarters. Although linear Taylor rules describe well the broad contours of monetary policy, they fail to detect relevant policy decisions driven by policy‐makers' judgment.
Criticism of economic globalization and technological progress has gained support in Italy in the last two decades. However, due to the differentiated exposure of local labor markets to this process, electoral outcomes have varied considerably across the country. By observing the local impact of three global economic phenomena (flows of migrants, foreign competition in international trade, and diffusion of robots) alongside with the patterns of local electoral outcomes potentially associated with discontent, this study analyzes the economic forces driving the evolution of general elections in 2001, 2008, and 2013 in Italy. The analysis reveals that all these global factors had an impact on political outcomes associated with discontent, albeit in different ways and changing over time. All three factors are associated with increases in votes for far‐right parties in the period 2001–2008, but only robotization continues to have such an impact in the following period, while immigration is associated with an increase in votes for the Five‐Star Movement at the expense of far‐right parties. The results and extensions exploiting recent advances in political geography, political economy, and spatial econometrics make it possible to draw some general and methodological conclusions. Global drivers interact with elements pertaining to the political supply that empirical researchers should not be oblivious about. Political spillovers across neighboring areas add to the direct impact of locally mediated economic factors. Finally, the adoption of shift–share instrumental variables to identify the impact of robotization may lack robustness.
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