The Trade Origins of Economic Nationalism: Import Competition and Voting Behavior in Western Europe

Abstract

We investigate the impact of globalization on electoral outcomes in 15 Western European countries over 1988–2007. We employ both official election results at the district level and individual‐level voting data, combined with party ideology scores from the Comparative Manifesto Project. We compute a region‐specific measure of exposure to Chinese imports, based on the historical industry specialization of each region. To identify the causal impact of the import shock, we instrument imports to Europe using Chinese imports to the United States. At the district level, a stronger import shock leads to (1) an increase in support for nationalist and isolationist parties, (2) an increase in support for radical‐right parties, and (3) a general shift to the right in the electorate. These results are confirmed by the analysis of individual‐level vote choices. In addition, we find evidence that voters respond to the shock in a sociotropic way.

Globalization and electoral outcomes: Evidence from Italy

“…Finally, the political science literature on populism and anti‐establishment voting (Arzheimer, ; Barr, ; Caiani & Graziano, ; Hernandez & Kriesi, ; Kriesi, ; Mudde & Rovira Kaltwasser, ; Schedler, ; Schumacher & van Kersbergen, ), and particularly those papers investigating the economic determinants of the rise of the current wave of populism in Western liberal democracies (Guiso, Herrera, Morelli, & Sonno, ; Inglehart & Norris, ), has been another important reference. This said, this work does not include an analysis of individual‐level vote choices/preferences (as done instead by Colantone & Stanig, ) nor an analysis of the perceptions of the risks associated with globalization (as in Stockemer, ), which are left for further research.…”

The Ideological Foundations of Economic Protectionism: Authoritarianism, Social Dominance Orientation, and the Moderating Role of Political Involvement

“…Although public opinion on foreign trade issues in Western societies has fluctuated over time, a sizeable part of the American and European public seems to be deeply unsettled about the opportunities and risks of international trade (Pew Research Center, ). Growing protectionist sentiments spark concern because they foster support for populist parties and candidates whose antitrade messages are characterized by a simple division of the world between “us” and “them” (Colantone & Stanig, ; Mutz, ; van der Waal & de Koster, ).…”

Beyond economic insecurity and cultural backlash: Economic nationalism and the rise of the far right

“…They define economic nationalism as opposition to free trade, advocacy for isolationism, a laissez‐faire approach to domestic economic issues underlined with nationalist sentiments. The authors thus conclude that voters respond to trade shocks in a sociotropic way and that “globalization might not be sustainable in the long run in the absence of appropriate redistribution policies aimed at compensating the so‐called “losers” of globalisation: Those segments of society that bear most of the adjustment costs of international trade” (Colantone & Stanig, : 936).…”

“…Today ́s far‐right political discourse features many of such economic nationalist ideas (Colantone & Stanig, ). They advocate for renationalising economic policies and various industries, disintegrating the European common market, and disenfranchising transnational corporations.…”