The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications

Haigh, Ivan D.; Pickering, Mark; Green, Mattias; Arbic, Brian K.; Arns, Arne; Dangendorf, Sönke; Hill, David F.; Horsburgh, Kevin; Howard, Tom; Idier, Déborah; Jay, David A.; Jänicke, Leon; Lee, Serena; Müller, Malte; Schindelegger, Michael; Talke, Stefan A.; Wilmes, Sophie-Berenice; Woodworth, Philip L.

doi:10.1029/2018rg000636

Cited by 174 publications

(193 citation statements)

References 266 publications

(619 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

189

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Similar vertical rates are found using GNSS from Tongue Point (station TPW2) and Fort Stevens (stations FTS5 and FTS6) and help confirm our analysis (see Table 3). For example, estimates from SONEL (Système d'Observation du Niveau des Eaux Littorales; Gravelle et al, 2013) suggest that Fort Stevens (station FTS5) is rising at a rate of 0.94 ± 0.4 mm/year compared to Tongue Point (Table 3). Similarly, estimates from the Nevada Geodetic Library updated through August 2019 (see Blewitt et al, 2016 andBlewitt et al, 2018) suggest a relative rate of 1.1 ± 0.8 mm/year (average of the difference between TPW2 and the two GNSS sensors at Fort Stevens; Table 3).…”

Section: Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Sea Level, Tidal, and River Flow Trends in the Lower Columbia River Estuary, 1853–present

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Few tidal records are available pre‐1900 for the Pacific Ocean. We improve data coverage by recovering historical tabulations and digitizing analog tide rolls from Astoria, Oregon, for 1853–1876. Nearly 13,500 overlapping images of tides from 1855–1870 were digitized at a 6 min resolution using a line‐finding algorithm. Available hourly and high/low tabulations were also digitized, as were nearby hourly records from 1933 to 1943. Uncertainty was assessed by evaluating manual staff measurements, historical documents, and leveling surveys. Results suggest that uncertainty in mean sea level varies from ±0.07 m (early 1850s) to ±0.03 m (1867–1876) and is driven primarily by datum and benchmark uncertainty, rather than measurement precision, data reduction procedures, or hydrodynamic changes. We also corrected an up‐to 0.05 m error in the 1925–1960 tidal datum at Astoria. Harmonic analysis shows that major tidal constituents increased by up to 7% between 1855 and 2018. Mean tidal range increased by 0.1 m (5%), with more change occurring in July (0.17 m larger) than winter (0.07 m larger). By contrast, sea level increased most in winter and least in spring/summer. Tidally based estimates of river discharge suggest that these observations are caused by a ~50% reduction in peak spring discharge and a 30–60% increase in winter discharge. No evidence of altered upwelling is found. Overall, Astoria relative sea level (RSL) increased by 0.06 m ± 0.04 m since the 1858–1876 epoch or, after accounting for vertical land motion, 0.11 ± 0.09 m. Consistent with GNSS measurements, RSL has dropped near the estuary mouth since 1905, indicating a strong tectonic influence.

show abstract

Section: Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on estimates of VLM from sonel.org, a repository of GNSS records near tide gauges that was developed under the auspices of the Global Sea Level Observing System (sonel.org; see, e.g., Gravelle et al, 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level, Tidal, and River Flow Trends in the Lower Columbia River Estuary, 1853–present

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A growing body of evidence shows that tidal properties have changed, and continue to evolve, due to non-astronomical factors including sea-level change, and that changes in tidal properties are likely to occur over the next centuries (Pickering et al 2012, Haigh et al 2019. To make a projection of the contribution to extreme sea-level change from this source, the CS3 model is deployed again without atmospheric forcing but with an adjusted bathymetry to provide insight into potential tidal changes.…”

Section: Tidementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The wavelength in turn controls the locations of the amphidromic points, and changes in these locations affect the tidal range at the coast, which is of most practical relevance for flooding. The presence of near-resonant estuaries can introduce further sensitivities (Pickering 2017, Pelling et al 2013, Haigh et al 2019, with changes in MSL having the potential to move the tides in such estuaries either further from or closer to resonance depending on location. Thus, the four potential sources of changing coastal flood risk for the UK that we explore here are: (i) MSL rise, (ii) changes in the statistics of storm surge, (iii) changes in the statistics of offshore waves, and (iv) changes in the amplitude of the tide.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contributions to 21st century projections of extreme sea-level change around the UK

Howard

Palmer

Bricheno

2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We provide a synthesis of results of a recent government-funded initiative to make projections of 21st century change in extreme sea levels around the coast of the United Kingdom. We compare four factors that influence future coastal flood risk: (i) time-mean sea-level (MSL) rise; (ii) changes in storm surge activity; (iii) changes in the offshore wave climate; (iv) changes in tidal amplitude arising from the increase in MSL. Our projections are dominated by the effects of MSL rise, which is typically more than five times larger than any of the other contributions. MSL is projected to rise by about 53 to 115centimetres at the mouth of the Thames and 30 to 90centimetres at Edinburgh (5th to 95th percentiles at 2100 relative to 1981-2000 average). Surge model projections disagree on the sign of future changes. Typical simulated changes are around +/−7centimetres. Because of the disagreement, our best estimate is of no change from this contribution, although we cannot rule out changes of either sign. Wave model projections suggest a decrease in significant wave height of the order of 7centimetres over the 21st century. However, the limited sample size and uncertainty in projections of changes in atmospheric circulation means that we cannot be confident about the sign of future changes in wave climate. MSL rise may induce changes in tidal amplitude of more than 15centimetres over the 21st century for the Bristol Channel. However, models disagree on the sign of change there. Elsewhere, our projected tidal amplitude changes are mostly less than 7centimetres. Whilst changes in MSL dominate, we have shown the potential for all processes considered here to make nonnegligible contributions over the 21st century.

show abstract

“…Sea-level rise (SLR) poses an increasing flood risk on global shorelines (FitzGerald et al, 2008;Haigh et al, 2014). In addition to the direct increment in water levels (Church et al, 2013;Oppenheimer et al, 2019), SLR induces changes in global and regional tidal regimes (Pelling et al, 2013b;Devlin et al, 2017;Pickering et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of sea-level rise on tides and sediment dynamics in a Dutch tidal bay

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sea-level rise (SLR) not only increases the threat of coastal flooding, but may also change tidal regimes in estuaries and coastal bays. To investigate such nearshore tidal responses to SLR, a hydrodynamic model of the European Shelf is downscaled to a model of a Dutch coastal bay (the Oosterschelde, i.e., Eastern Scheldt) and forced by SLR scenarios ranging from 0 to 2 m. This way, the effect of SLR on tidal dynamics in the adjacent North Sea is taken into account as well. The model setup does not include meteorological forcing, gravitational circulation, and changes in bottom topography. Our results indicate that SLR up to 2 m induces larger increases in tidal amplitude and stronger nonlinear tidal distortion in the bay compared to the adjacent shelf sea. Under SLR up to 2 m, the bay shifts from a mixed floodand ebb-dominant state to complete ebb dominance. We also find that tidal asymmetry affects an important component of sediment transport. Considering sand bed-load transport only, the changed tidal asymmetry may lead to enhanced export, with potential implications for shoreline management. In this case study, we find that local impacts of SLR can be highly spatially varying and nonlinear. The model coupling approach applied here is suggested as a useful tool for establishing local SLR projections in estuaries and coastal bays elsewhere. Future studies should include how SLR changes the bed morphology as well as the feedback effect on tides.

show abstract

The Tides They Are A‐Changin': A Comprehensive Review of Past and Future Nonastronomical Changes in Tides, Their Driving Mechanisms, and Future Implications

Cited by 174 publications

References 266 publications

Sea Level, Tidal, and River Flow Trends in the Lower Columbia River Estuary, 1853–present

Sea Level, Tidal, and River Flow Trends in the Lower Columbia River Estuary, 1853–present

Contributions to 21st century projections of extreme sea-level change around the UK

Effects of sea-level rise on tides and sediment dynamics in a Dutch tidal bay

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About