The temperature dependence of the ozone concentration near the stratopause

Barnett, J. J.; Houghton, J. T.; Pyle, J. A.

doi:10.1002/qj.49710142808

Cited by 129 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 19 publications

(1 reference statement)

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“…Because of this effect, future tropical ozone levels show even further decline at the end of the 21st century compared to near-present values. The slowing of photochemical ozone loss reactions caused by the cooling in the stratosphere (Barnett et al, 1975;Jonsson et al, 2004) contributes to a smaller degree to the overall TOC evolution (Zubov et al, 2013). Li et al (2009) showed that the BDC acceleration plays a crucial role in future ozone recovery and spatial distribution.…”

Section: Ozone Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Arsenović¹,

Rozanov

Anet

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m −2 , respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m −2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

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Section: Ozone Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

Arsenović¹,

Rozanov

Anet

et al. 2018

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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“…In the daytime mesosphere, catalytic ozone depletion by odd hydrogen has to be considered in addition to the Chapman cycle. The anticorrelation of ozone and temperature is mainly due to the temperature dependence of the rate coefficients of the Reactions (R3) and (R2) (Craig and Ohring, 1958;Barnett et al, 1975).…”

Section: S Studer Et Al: Climatology Of the Diurnal Ozone Variationmentioning

confidence: 99%

A climatology of the diurnal variations in stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bern, Switzerland

et al. 2014

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Abstract. The ground-based radiometer GROMOS, stationed in Bern (47.95 • N, 7.44 • E), Switzerland, has a unique data set: it obtains ozone profiles from November 1994 to present with a time resolution of 30 min and equivalent quality during night-and daytime. Here, we derive a monthly climatology of the daily ozone cycle from 17 years of GRO-MOS observation. We present the diurnal ozone variation of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Characterizing the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone is important for correct trend estimates of the ozone layer derived from satellite observations. The diurnal ozone cycle from GROMOS is compared to two models: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). Generally, observation and models show a good agreement: in the lower mesosphere, daytime ozone is for both GROMOS and models around 25 % less than midnight ozone. In the stratosphere, ozone reaches its maximum in the afternoon showing values several percent larger than the midnight value. Further, GROMOS and models indicate a seasonal behaviour of the diurnal ozone variations in the stratosphere with a larger afternoon maximum during daytime in summer than in winter. Using the 17 years of ozone profiles from GROMOS, we find strong interannual variations in the diurnal ozone cycle for both the stratosphere and the mesosphere. Interannual variability in temperature, atmospheric circulation and composition may explain the observed interannual variability of the diurnal ozone cycle above Bern.

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“…Anthropogenic emissions of GHGs are also expected to influence stratospheric ozone concentrations, both through their dynamical and their chemical effects. GHG-induced cooling of the stratosphere is expected to contribute to an increase in the rate of ozone recovery by slowing gas-phase ozone loss reactions (Barnett et al, 1975;Jonsson et al, 2004). A warming troposphere and associated changes in wave activity propagation from the troposphere into the stratosphere are also predicted to speed up the Brewer-Dobson circulation (Butchart et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%