The superior influence of Darwin Sea level pressure anomalies over ENSO as a simple drought predictor for Southern Africa

Manatsa, Desmond; Chingombe, Wisemen; Matsikwa, H.; Matarira, C. H.

doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0315-3

Cited by 49 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Theoretically, the SPI is unbounded empirically but is extremely rare to observe values in excess of ±3.0. Details of calculating the Zimbabwe seasonal SPI values (Zim SPI) and the seasonal rainfall classification procedure are found in Manatsa et al (2007). This procedure yields values of the Zim SPI, their frequency probabilities and nominal class descriptions that are provided in Table I.…”

Section: The Standardized Precipitation Index Methods (Spi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts

Manatsa

Chingombe

Matarira

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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A comparative study of the impact of the anomalous positive Indian Ocean SST gradient, referred to as the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall variability for the period 1940-1999, is documented. Composite techniques together with simple and partial correlation analyses are employed to segregate the unique association related to IODZM/ENSO with respect to the Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall.The analysis reveals that the IODZM impact on the country's summer rainfall is overwhelming as compared to that of ENSO when the two are in competition. The IODZM influence remains high (significant above 99% confidence level), even after the influence of ENSO has been removed, while that of ENSO collapses to insignificance (even at 90% confidence level) when the IODZM contribution is eliminated. The relationship between ENSO and Zimbabwe seasonal rainfall seems to be sustained through El Niño occurring in the presence of positive IODZM events. However, when the co-occurring positive IODZM and El Niño events are removed from the analysis, it is apparently clear that ENSO has little to do with the country's rainfall variability. On the other hand, positive IODZM is mostly associated with the rainfall deficits, whether or not it co-occurs with El Niño. However, the co-occurrence of the two events does not necessarily suggest that El Niño influences droughts through the positive IODZM events. The El Niño event components during co-occurrence seem to be unrelated (at least linearly) to the droughts, while the positive IODZM events display a relatively strong relationship that is significant above the 95% confidence level. It thus becomes important to extend the study of this nature to cover the whole of southern Africa, so that the extent of the impact of the phenomena can be realized over the whole region.

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Section: The Standardized Precipitation Index Methods (Spi)mentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts

Manatsa

Chingombe

Matarira

2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Neither temperature nor pressure was significant in the amounts model. Although the ENSO indices were expected to be important based on the literature (Richard et al, 2000;Mulenga et al, 2003;Reason et al, 2005;Manatsa et al, 2008), none of these indices were within the eight most statistically significant external predictors.…”

Section: Spatial and Temporal Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…This variability may be partly associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases that are often linked with droughts and seasonal rainfall variability over southern Africa (Reason et al, 2005). However, recent studies suggest that ENSO may be poorly associated with rainfall in some parts of southern Africa (Manatsa et al, 2008). The degree of association of ENSO with the upper Limpopo rainfall in particular is unknown, and this will be investigated using the GLMs.…”

Section: Case Study Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic simulation of rainfall in the semi‐arid Limpopo basin, Botswana

Kenabatho

McIntyre

Chandler

et al. 2011

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:The application of spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall models to semi-arid or arid areas is expected to be particularly challenging because of the high variability of rainfall, sparse rain gauge networks with significant periods of missing rainfall and potential data quality issues. In this article, a generalized linear model (GLM) has been fitted to daily rainfall data from the period 1975-1999 for 13 gauges in a 7660 km 2 sub-basin of the Limpopo basin in Botswana, with the objective of exploring applicability of the GLM for infilling historic records and for climate change analysis. Several relevant statistics of rainfall space-time variability were used to analyse model performance, including use of an independent validation period and sites that were not used in the fitting. The GLM was considered to simulate rainfall adequately for the purpose of sub-basin-scale water resource studies, although the model uncertainty is high. The main factors affecting rainfall space-time variability were found to be seasonality, autocorrelation of daily rainfall, altitude, latitude and longitude. Addition of large-scale drivers of rainfall (pressure, humidity and temperature) further improved representation of inter-annual variability, and this link to large-scale climate potentially facilitates downscaling of global climate model outputs. Although the model was locally sensitive to data quality issues, there was no evidence that these issues affected sub-basin scale analysis.

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“…southern Africa (e.g. Clarke et al, 2012;Cornforth, 2013;Dube and Jury, 2000Green, 1993;Jager et al, 1998;Manatsa et al, 2008;O'Meagher et al, 1998;Richard et al, 2001;Unganai and Kogan, 1998;Vogel et al, 2010), Sahel (western Africa) (e.g. Giannini et al, 2008;Govaerts and Lattanzio, 2008;Kasei et al, 2010;Lebel et al, 2009;Lodoun et al, 2013;Traore and Fontane, 2007;Zeng, 2003), eastern Africa (Horn of Africa) (e.g.…”

Section: Masih Et Al: a Review Of Droughts On The African Continementioning

confidence: 99%

A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

Masih

Maskey

Mussá

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

520

250

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Abstract. This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the available literature and information on droughts to build a continental, regional and country level perspective on geospatial and temporal variation of droughts in Africa. The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts occurred during 1900-2013, as well as evidence available from past centuries based on studies on the lake sediment analysis, tree-ring chronologies and written and oral histories and future predictions from the global climate change models. Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the last 50 years. The extreme droughts of

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The superior influence of Darwin Sea level pressure anomalies over ENSO as a simple drought predictor for Southern Africa

Cited by 49 publications

References 37 publications

The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts

The impact of the positive Indian Ocean dipole on Zimbabwe droughts

Stochastic simulation of rainfall in the semi‐arid Limpopo basin, Botswana

A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

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