The Sunspot Activity in the Last Two Millenia on the Basis of Indirect and Instrumental Indexes: Time Series Models and Their Extrapolations for the 21st Century

Komitov, B.; Кафтан, В. И.

doi:10.1017/s1743921304005307

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…In the 1960s, it was shown that the above-mentioned fluctuations are connected to long-term solar activity variations [13] and that they have been cyclic with a mean period of ~200 years during the last ~1300 years [12]. The existence of a bi-century cycle in the cosmogenic isotope 14 C and 10 Be time series, as well as its solar origin during the last ~50 years, was reported by many other authors [14][15][16]26]. The 200 yr oscillation is often also labeled the "Suess cycle" in honor of one of its co-discoverers, the Austrian-American chemist and nuclear physicist Hans Eduard Suess ((1909-1993), https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Suess; accessed on 15 December 2023).…”

Section: The "Nitrate Method"mentioning

confidence: 80%

About the Possible Solar Nature of the ~200 yr (de Vries/Suess) and ~2000–2500 yr (Hallstadt) Cycles and Their Influences on the Earth’s Climate: The Role of Solar-Triggered Tectonic Processes in General “Sun–Climate” Relationship

Komitov

2024

Atmosphere

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(1) Introduction: The subject of the present study concerns the analysis of the existence and long time evolution of the solar ~200 yr (de Vries/Suess) and ~2400 yr (Hallstadt) cycles during the recent part of the Wurm ice epoch and the Holocene, as well as their forcing on the regional East European climate during the last two calendar millennia. The results obtained here are compared with those from our previous studies, as well as with the results obtained by other authors and with other types of data. A possible scenario of solar activity changes during the 21st century, as well as different possible mechanisms of solar–climatic relationships, is discussed. (2) Data and methods: Two types of indirect (historical) data series for solar activity were used: (a) the international radiocarbon tree ring series (INTCAL13) for the last 13,900 years; (b) the Schove series of the calendar years of minima and maxima and the magnitudes of 156 quasi 11 yr sunspot Schwabe–Wolf cycles since 296 AD and up to the sunspot cycle with number 24 (SC24) in the Zurich series; (c) manuscript messages about extreme meteorological and climatic events (Danube and Black Sea near-coast water freezing), extreme summer droughts, etc., in Bulgaria and adjacent territories since 296 and up to 1899 AD, when the Bulgarian meteorological dataset was started. A time series analysis and χ2-test were used. (3) Results and analysis: The amplitude modulation of the 200 yr solar cycle by the 2400 yr (Hallstadt) cycle was confirmed. Two groups of extremely cold winters (ECWs) during the last ~1700 years were established. Both groups without exclusion are concentrated near 11 yr sunspot cycle extremes. The number of ECWs near sunspot cycle minima is about 2 times greater than that of ECWs near sunspot cycle maxima. This result is in agreement with our earlier studies for the instrumental epoch since 1899 AD. The driest “spring-summer-early autumn” seasons in Bulgaria and adjacent territories occur near the initial and middle phases of the grand solar minima of the Oort–Dalton type, which relate to the downward phases and minima of the 200 yr Suess cycle. (4) Discussion: The above results confirm the effect of the Sun’s forcing on climate. However, it cannot be explained by the standard hypothesis for total solar irradiation (TSI) variations. That is why another hypothesis is suggested by the author. The mechanism considered by Svensmark for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) forcing on aerosol nuclei was taken into account. However, in the hypothesis suggested here, the forcing of solar X-ray flux changes (including solar flares) on the low ionosphere (the D-layer) and following interactions with the Earth’s lithosphere due to the terrestrial electric current systems play a key role for aerosol nuclei and cloud generation and dynamics during sunspot maxima epochs. The GCR flux maximum absorption layer at heights of 35–40 km replaces the ionosphere D-layer role during the sunspot minima epochs.

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Section: The "Nitrate Method"mentioning

confidence: 80%

About the Possible Solar Nature of the ~200 yr (de Vries/Suess) and ~2000–2500 yr (Hallstadt) Cycles and Their Influences on the Earth’s Climate: The Role of Solar-Triggered Tectonic Processes in General “Sun–Climate” Relationship

Komitov

2024

Atmosphere

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“…In the latter work, published his-torical data from the catalog of Křivský and Pejml [1988] was used. There is also a 200-210-year cycle in "cosmogenic" radio isotopes ( 14 C, 10 Be), relating to GCR flux variations [Damon and Sonett, 1991;Dergachev, 1994;Komitov and Kaftan, 2004;Stuiver and Quay, 1980;Suess, 1980]. All these facts support the solar origin of the ∼200-250-year cycle in the volcanic eruption time series during the past ∼470 years.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

"Danjon Effect", Solar-Triggered Volcanic Activity, and Relation to Climate Change

Komitov

Кафтан

2022

Russian Journal of Earth Sciences

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The “Danjon effect” is a phenomenon that presents a tendency to concentrate the so-called “dark” total lunar eclipses (DTLE) near solar sunspot cycle minimum phases. It was a starting point for the present study, whose main subject is a statistical analysis of relationship between solar and volcanic activity for the maximum long time. To this end, the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History's volcanic activity catalog was used. On its basis, a time series of the total annual volcanic eruptions for the period 1551–2020 AD has been built and explored for cycles of possible solar origin. Cycles with duration of 10–11, 19–25, ∼60, and ∼240 years (all with possible solar origin) has been established. It has also been found that there are two certain peaks of volcanic activity during the sunspot activity cycle: the first one is close to or after the sunspot minimum (sunspot cycle phase 0.9 ≤ Φ ≤1.0 and 0.1 ≤ Φ ≤ 0.2), and the second is wider – close to the sunspot cycle maximum (0.3 ≤ Φ ≤ 0.5). A third maximum is detected about 3–4 years after the sunspot cycle maximum (0.7 ≤ Φ ≤ 0.8) for the “moderate strong” volcanic eruptions with volcanic eruptive index VEI = 5. It corresponds to the geomagnetic activity secondary maximum, which usually occurs 3–4 years after the sunspot maximum. Φ is calculated separately on the basis of each sunspot cycle length. Finally, without any exclusions, all most powerful volcanic eruptions for which VEI ≥ 6 are centered near the ∼11-year Schwabe-Wolf cycle extremes. Trigger mechanisms of solar and geomagnetic activity over volcanic events, as well as their relation to climate change (in interaction with galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and/or solar energetic particles (SEP)), are discussed. The Pinatubo eruption in 1991 as an example of a “pure” strong solar–volcanism relationship has been analyzed in detail.

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“…Climatic events throughout history, such as ice ages and warmer weather periods, correlate with periods of solar activity or with variations in total solar radiation. One of the most significant minima of solar activity was the Dalton minimum, which occurred in the periods 1790-1830 and 1796-1820, depending on the solar cycle they join (Komitov and Kaftan, 2004). In that period, below-average temperatures appeared in Great Britain.…”

Section: Wolf's Number and The Hurst Phenomenonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors affecting variations in the hydrological cycle at different temporal and spatial scales

Bonacci

2023

Acta Hydrotechnica

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The climate is changing intensively, causing major variations in the local, regional, and eventually global hydrological cycle. Furthermore, climate changes strongly affect individual components of the hydrological cycle. The prevailing present-day opinion is that climate change is primarily caused by anthropogenic production of CO2. This assumption is automatically accepted as the main reason or at least a contributory cause of changes in the hydrological cycle. However, changes in hydrological cycle appear to be a significantly more complex problem. At the same time, various other processes take place on different temporal and spatial scales. The article discusses numerous natural and human-caused factors that can affect changes in the hydrological cycle. When considering the factors that affect the planetary hydrological cycle on any temporal or spatial scale, it is necessary to consider many potential causes and understand their interactions. The natural factors discussed in this paper are Milanković cycles, Wolf number, Hurst phenomenon, earthquakes, volcanoes, and meteorite impacts. Among the anthropogenic influences, the role of dams and reservoirs is emphasized.

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The Sunspot Activity in the Last Two Millenia on the Basis of Indirect and Instrumental Indexes: Time Series Models and Their Extrapolations for the 21st Century

Cited by 10 publications

References 3 publications

About the Possible Solar Nature of the ~200 yr (de Vries/Suess) and ~2000–2500 yr (Hallstadt) Cycles and Their Influences on the Earth’s Climate: The Role of Solar-Triggered Tectonic Processes in General “Sun–Climate” Relationship

About the Possible Solar Nature of the ~200 yr (de Vries/Suess) and ~2000–2500 yr (Hallstadt) Cycles and Their Influences on the Earth’s Climate: The Role of Solar-Triggered Tectonic Processes in General “Sun–Climate” Relationship

"Danjon Effect", Solar-Triggered Volcanic Activity, and Relation to Climate Change

Factors affecting variations in the hydrological cycle at different temporal and spatial scales

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