The Sun’s Strange Behavior: Maunder Minimum or Gleissberg Cycle?

Feynman, J.; Ruzmaikin, A.

doi:10.1007/s11207-011-9828-0

Cited by 53 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…During that minimum in 2008 there were 250 days without sunspots. This was the second quietest year in over 100 years [ Feynman and Ruzmaikin , , ]. Only the twentieth century deep minimum was quieter with over 300 spotless days in 1913, and 250 days in 1912.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle and its association with extended minima

Feynman

Ruzmaikin

2014

JGR Space Physics

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The recent extended minimum of solar and geomagnetic variability (XSM) mirrors the XSMs in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries: 1810–1830 and 1900–1910. Such extended minima also were evident in aurorae reported from 450 A.D. to 1450 A.D. This paper argues that these minima are consistent with minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycles (CGCs), a 90–100 year variation observed on the Sun, in the solar wind, at the Earth, and throughout the heliosphere. The occurrence of the recent XSM is consistent with the existence of the CGC as a quasiperiodic variation of the solar dynamo. Evidence of CGCs is provided by the multicentury sunspot record, by the almost 150 year record of indexes of geomagnetic activity (1868 to present), by 1000 years of observations of aurorae (from 450 to 1450 A.D.) and millennial records of radionuclides in ice cores. The aa index of geomagnetic activity carries information about the two components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal and poloidal), one driven by flares and coronal mass ejections (related to the toroidal field) and the other driven by corotating interaction regions in the solar wind (related to the poloidal field). These two components systematically vary in their intensity and relative phase giving us information about centennial changes of the sources of solar dynamo during the recent CGC over the last century. The dipole and quadrupole modes of the solar magnetic field changed in relative amplitude and phase; the quadrupole mode became more important as the XSM was approached. Some implications for the solar dynamo theory are discussed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle and its association with extended minima

Feynman

Ruzmaikin

2014

JGR Space Physics

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“…This type of variability has been characterized as fractal in prior analyses (Consolini et al, 2013), and is typical of multifractal processes (Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2013). In this respect, some studies have argued that solar activity may be chaotic, with variations tracing back to a small number of deterministic attractors (Hansen and Willson, 1997;Solanki and Krivova, 2011;Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2011). However, given the causes of geomagnetic activity -interactions between several stochastic processes -it is more likely that the Aa index is multifractal.…”

Section: The Monthly Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting geomagnetic activity at monthly and annual horizons: Time series models

Reikard

2015

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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“…It is empirically defined but its physical meaning is not yet clear. There is a long list of studies on long-term evolution of the geomagnetic activity and its relationship with the solar variability, such as those published by Feynman & Crooker (1978), Svalgaard (1978), Cliver et al (1996), Andreasen (1997), Cliver et al (1998), Stamper et al (1999), Lockwood et al (1999), Richardson et al (2002), Mursula et al (2001), Svalgaard et al (2003), Echer et al (2004), Svalgaard et al (2004), Mursula et al (2004), Le Mouël et al (2005, Clilverd et al (2005), Svalgaard & Cliver (2005), Svalgaard & Cliver (2007), Rouillard et al (2007), Lockwood et al (2009), Feynman & Ruzmaikin (2011), Du (2011, Richardson & Cane (2012a, 2012b.…”

Section: Long-term Evolution Of the Geomagnetic Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

Geomagnetic response to solar and interplanetary disturbances

Sáiz

Cerrato

Cid

et al. 2013

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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The space weather discipline involves different physical scenarios, which are characterised by very different physical conditions, ranging from the Sun to the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere. Thanks to the great modelling effort made during the last years, a few Sun-to-ionosphere/thermosphere physics-based numerical codes have been developed. However, the success of the prediction is still far from achieving the desirable results and much more progress is needed. Some aspects involved in this progress concern both the technical progress (developing and validating tools to forecast, selecting the optimal parameters as inputs for the tools, improving accuracy in prediction with short lead time, etc.) and the scientific development, i.e., deeper understanding of the energy transfer process from the solar wind to the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. The purpose of this paper is to collect the most relevant results related to these topics obtained during the COST Action ES0803. In an end-to-end forecasting scheme that uses an artificial neural network, we show that the forecasting results improve when gathering certain parameters, such as X-ray solar flares, Type II and/or Type IV radio emission and solar energetic particles enhancements as inputs for the algorithm. Regarding the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction topic, the geomagnetic responses at high and low latitudes are considered separately. At low latitudes, we present new insights into temporal evolution of the ring current, as seen by Burton's equation, in both main and recovery phases of the storm. At high latitudes, the PCC index appears as an achievement in modelling the coupling between the upper atmosphere and the solar wind, with a great potential for forecasting purposes. We also address the important role of small-scale field-aligned currents in Joule heating of the ionosphere even under non-disturbed conditions. Our scientific results in the framework of the COST Action ES0803 cover the topics from the short-term solar-activity evolution, i.e., space weather, to the long-term evolution of relevant solar/heliospheric/magnetospheric parameters, i.e., space climate. On the timescales of the Hale and Gleissberg cycles (22-and 88-year cycle respectively) we can highlight that the trend of solar, heliospheric and geomagnetic parameters shows the solar origin of the widely discussed increase in geomagnetic activity in the last century.

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The Sun’s Strange Behavior: Maunder Minimum or Gleissberg Cycle?

Cited by 53 publications

References 42 publications

The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle and its association with extended minima

The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle and its association with extended minima

Forecasting geomagnetic activity at monthly and annual horizons: Time series models

Geomagnetic response to solar and interplanetary disturbances

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