“…While the relevant literature is too vast to do justice here (Tammen et al, 2021), the simple point is that like spirals, power shifts do not occur in a discursive or emotional vacuum. Shifting power relations can be unsettling, giving rise to emotionally salient discourses of self-doubt, jealousy, or anxiety (Hagström, 2021; Onea, 2014) in the declining power, and ‘unhappiness and resentment’ (Paul, 2017) in the rising one, particularly where it does not feel sufficiently accommodated or recognised (Murray, 2019) – all affective climates highly conducive to inflationary projection. Moreover, states facing the uncertainties of shifting balances of power may particularly obsess over their reputation, prestige, or status (Larson and Shevchenko, 2010), becoming increasingly likely to engage in extrapolation and abstraction.…”