The structure of qualitative decision-making

Brugha, Cathal M.

doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(96)00362-1

Cited by 42 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The tendency of the human mind to follow simple decision rules is the fundamental premise of the theory named Nomology by Brugha (1998). This leads to an attitude which disregards numerical values when dealing with small probabilities and huge gains, fitting the management of loss aversion and risk propensity on different points of the value scale of Prospect Theory (Kahnemann and Tversky, 1979).…”

Section: Probabilities Of Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

<b>new evidence on the formation of preferences of betters in horse races</b>

Sant’Anna¹,

Gomes²

2003

Revista PO: R. Eletr. de Eng. de Produção e Correlatas

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ResumoEste artigo apresenta evidência adicional sobre a contribuição das probabilidades de ser a melhor escolha de acordo com critérios particulares para a formação de preferências dos apostadores em páreos selecionados de corridas de cavalos. São consideradas regras de combinação baseadas na projeção sobre o vetor de avaliações da alternativa em maior evidência, na distância à fronteira de excelência e em abordagens probabilísticas. Dois critérios são combinados: a opinião de especialistas e a escolha dos jóqueis. A análise é baseada em dados das provas de grandes prêmios disputadas durante a semana do Grande Prêmio Brasil de 2002. Palavras-chave: preferências -probabilidades de escolha -análise de decisão multicritério AbstractThis paper presents further evidence concerning the contribution of the probabilities of being the best choice according to particular criteria to the formation of preferences of the betters in selected horse races. Combination rules based on projection on the vector of evaluations of the option under strongest evidence, on distance to the excellence frontier and on probabilistic approaches are considered. Two criteria are combined: experts' opinion and jockeys' choice. The analysis is based on data from the big prize races run during the week of the Grande Prêmio Brasil 2002.

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Section: Probabilities Of Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

<b>new evidence on the formation of preferences of betters in horse races</b>

Sant’Anna¹,

Gomes²

2003

Revista PO: R. Eletr. de Eng. de Produção e Correlatas

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“…Nomology (Brugha 1998a(Brugha , 1998b(Brugha and 1998c Consider the structuring that was done for the house choice. The hierarchy in Figure 3 shows that the biggest qualitative distinction is at the top of the hierarchy with the issue of financing determining whether or not one can afford the house or not.…”

Section: Relevance Of Nomologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This article develops from work by the author on the structure of qualitative decision-making (Brugha 1998a(Brugha , 1998b(Brugha and 1998c which is determined by Nomology (Hamilton, 1877), the science of the laws of the mind. It provides a basis for modelling the way people might differentiate multiple criteria.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structuring and Weighting Criteria in Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)

Brugha

1998

Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems

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Abstract:The implications of qualitative distinctions between multiple criteria are considered. Some contributions to theory about the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are challenged. Experiments on alternative criteria structures are reported. These suggest that confusing structures are bad, but good structures are better than none. Guidelines on how to develop a structure are given for a well known case of the purchase of a house. It is suggested that differences between decision alternatives should provide a first phase basis for discovering criteria. A criteria tree should be structured 'top down' as a second phase by clustering criteria on the basis of qualitative difference. On any level the differences between criteria should follow relatively simple patterns. The rules used suggest the relevance of work on the structure of qualitative decision-making which is determined by Nomology, the science of the laws of the mind. Implications are considered for weighting trade-offs between homogeneous clusters of criteria.This should be done as a later 'bottom up' phase. The AHP scoring system is challenged. Some tests of alternative scoring methods are reported.

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“…This knowledge is usually already available in the form of a system of equations that are used to compute values rather than to explain them. On the other hand there is knowledge of cause±eect relations that is often of a qualitative nature [5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%