The status of conventional world oil reserves—Hype or cause for concern?

Owen, Nick A.; Inderwildi, Oliver R.; King, David A.

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026

Cited by 341 publications

(217 citation statements)

References 14 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…A word of caution should first be said about all the intricate, sometimes even confusing, reserve and resource classifications that are available. It has been found that proven+probable (2P) reserve figures are the most realistic estimates of the amounts that can be produced by a number of studies (Bentley et al, 2007;Meng and Bentley, 2008;Owen et al, 2010;). …”

Section: Applications Of Growth Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Höök

Oba

et al. 2011

Nat Resour Res

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This study reviews a variety of growth curve models and the theoretical frameworks that lay behind them. In many systems, growth patterns are, or must, ultimately be subjected to some form of limitation. A number of curve models have been developed to describe and predict such behaviours. Symmetric growth curves have frequently been used for forecasting fossil fuel production, but others have expressed a need for more flexible and asymmetric models.A number of examples show differences and applications of various growth curve models. It is concluded that these growth curve models can be utilised as forecasting tools, but are do not necessarily provide better predictions than any other method. Consequently, growth curve models and other forecasting methods should be used together to provide a triangulated forecast. Furthermore, the growth curve methodology offers a simple tool for resource management to determine what might happen to future production if resource availability poses a problem. In the light of peak oil and the awareness of natural resources as a basis for the continued well-being of society and mankind, resource management should be an important factor in future social planning.

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Section: Applications Of Growth Curvesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Höök

Oba

et al. 2011

Nat Resour Res

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“…Further, it is far less important how much oil is left if demand is, for instance, 90 Mb/d but only 80 Mb/d can be produced. Still, the most realistic reserve estimates indicate a near-term resource-limited production peak (Meng and Bentley, 2008;Owen et al, 2010).…”

Section: Oil Production Todaymentioning

confidence: 99%

Global oil risks in the early 21st century

Fantazzini

Höök

Angelantoni³

2011

Energy Policy

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The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other difficult to reach locations. Moreover, obtaining the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is shown to be when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry of the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.

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“…Undoubtedly, energy demand is growing annually and oil will be the dominant source for next two decades [4], as a consequence of applying extraction technology is critically significant. Therefore, applying new technologies for improving oil recovery from conventional reservoirs or exploitation of unconventional reservoirs could be an appropriate strategy [5]. Conventional oil reservoirs are easy to access, while, unconventional sources are absolutely challenging.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simulation Approach for Screening of EOR Scenarios in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs

Bakyani¹,

Namdarpoor²,

Sarvestani³

et al. 2018

IJG

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Undoubtedly, plenty of hydrocarbon sources are located in carbonate rocks, particularly those which are naturally fractured that is still needed to study their characterization, because of their complex and unconventional behavior. Therefore, applying any processes that cause Enhancing Oil Recovery (EOR) from Naturally Fractured Reservoirs (NFR) seems necessary and useful. However, selecting the best developed scenario is always challenging. Screening criteria would determine the possibility of implementing an EOR process. While, utilizing trade marketing simulators can solve this problem. Moreover, simulation can evaluate other parameters such as water cut and gas-oil ratio. In this research, an aquifer-supported Iranian NFR with two parts that are separated to each other with a shale layer is considered in order to select the best EOR scenario. The fluid model is created using PVTi software. Various production scenarios included natural depletion, water flooding, miscible carbon dioxide injection, water-alternating-gas (WAG) injection, simultaneous water-alternating-gas (SWAG) injection, hybrid injection, and gas recycling are simulated in ECLIPSE Compositional (E300) and their recovery factor recorded as the target parameter. The developed scenarios are designed in a way that gives the optimized results, i.e. higher recovery factor, less water cut as well as the less gas-oil ratio. As a result, SWAG shows better conditions and is recommended for the further studies of the reservoir management plan in the future. Also, the role of the aquifer in the SWAG scenario is positive by creating a natural WAG in addition to the SWAG. Additionally, the average reservoir pressure through fractures reduces less in the SWAG than the other Scenarios, the oil and gas production rate reduce less in the SWAG and SWAG/ miscible gas respectively than the other scenarios. The maximum and the minimum water cut are related to the water flooding and SWAG, respectively.

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The status of conventional world oil reserves—Hype or cause for concern?

Cited by 341 publications

References 14 publications

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Descriptive and Predictive Growth Curves in Energy System Analysis

Global oil risks in the early 21st century

A Simulation Approach for Screening of EOR Scenarios in Naturally Fractured Reservoirs

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