The short-term impact of economic uncertainty on motor vehicle collisions

Abstract

Stress and anxiety lead to attention loss and sleep deprivation and may reduce driving performance, increasing the risk of motor vehicle collision. We used evidence from a natural experiment to examine whether daily changes in economic uncertainty, potentially leading to attention or sleep loss, are associated with collisions in Great Britain. Daily data from the economic policy uncertainty index, derived from analysis of daily UK newspapers, were linked to the daily number of motor vehicle collisions in Great Britain over the period 2005-2015, obtained from the Department for Transport. Exploiting daily variations in economic uncertainty, we used a GARCH approach to model daily rates of motor vehicle collisions as a function of economic uncertainty, controlling for month and day of the week, monthly unemployment rates and weekly unleaded petrol prices. A spike in the daily economic uncertainty index was associated with an immediate increase in the number of motor vehicle collisions. Results were robust to various sensitivity analyses. Overall, daily increases in economic uncertainty are associated with short-term spikes in motor vehicle collisions. Preventive and traffic control measures may need to increase during periods of economic uncertainty.

The association between economic uncertainty and suicide in the short-run

“…The second reason is related to sleep: Worries triggered by economic uncertainty might keep someone up at night, causing sleep deprivation which is a suicide risk factor (Bernert et al 2017;Cukrowicz et al 2006); although it might not always be clear whether this would be a short-term or exclusively long-term risk factor. These findings are in line with previous studies on the impact of economic uncertainty and bad financial news on road traffic accidents that have also shown that the effect is limited to the first two days (Vandoros et al 2018;Vandoros et al 2014). Our findings add to this literature and further demonstrate that increases in suicides as a result of financial concerns can happen in the very short-term.…”

“…This short-term effect is similar to that in previous research that demonstrates the immediate and short-lived effect of negative financial news on health-related behaviour (Vandoros et al 2014) and how accidental mortality also responds to immediate economic uncertainty shocks (Vandoros et al 2018). While existing studies often focus on the effects of actual bad financial developments (such as unemployment and recessions) on health, our study examines the impact of uncertainty on suicide, adding to previous studies that found a link between fear of job loss and deterioration of mental health (Caroli and Godard 2016;Bünnings et al 2017;Green 2011;Burgard et al 2009;Ferrie et al 2005).…”

“…For example, suicides were negatively correlated with economic activity in New York City, but not with stock market volatility (Nandi et al 2012); while the number of motor vehicle collisions increased on the first and second day after the announcement of austerity measures (Vandoros et al 2014). In terms of the impact of uncertainty, a previous study suggests that increased levels of economic uncertainty are associated with a spike in motor vehicle collisions, an effect attributed to distraction, stress, and sleep deprivation (Vandoros et al 2018). Whether such short-term increases also apply to suicide has not yet been examined.…”

The EU referendum and mental health in the short term: a natural experiment using antidepressant prescriptions in England

“…Most discussion on the Brexit vote focuses on political or economic concerns, and discussion of the impact on individual health and well-being has been limited; our results contribute to filling this gap. Finally, our study suggests that major political and economic shocks may have unanticipated consequences on population health, even before they directly affect employment, business or migration patterns 30. This suggests that the anticipation of change may in itself be a risk factor for the use of antidepressants.…”

The relative risk of motor vehicle collision on cannabis celebration day in Great Britain

“…Some major collision risk factors include sleep deprivation, fatigue, stress and distraction (see for example Horne and Reyner, 1995;Beanland et al, 2013;Lagarde et al, 2004;Dula et al, 2010;Philip et al, 2001;Vandoros et al, 2018).…”