The seven demographic Spains. Inter-municipal contrasts in age structure : fertility and migration are the determining factors

Velasco, Pedro Reques; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Vicente

doi:10.3406/espos.2000.1962

Cited by 8 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…The left graph delineates a linear relationship underlying a continuous decrease in birth rates with population density. Given the higher rural than urban fertility rate and the lack of evidence of differential fertility of suburbs [79], this spatial model was regarded as the most traditional in the recent history of regional demography [80], possibly associated with pretransitional demographic scenarios dominated by low-density socioeconomic contexts and medium-low urbanization rates [5,81,82]. The middle graph represents a linear relationship underlying a continuous increase in birth rates with population density [4], reflecting a higher urban than rural fertility rate, with no evidence of differential fertility in suburban areas [83][84][85].…”

Section: Logical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions

Nickayin

Nosova

Turco

et al. 2022

Land

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Assuming fertility variations across urban–rural gradients, our study focuses on the traditional polarization in urban and rural fertility, offering a refined interpretation of demographic processes associated with population density. More specifically, we tested the intimate relationship between local fertility and population density, comparing the outcomes of a classical urban–rural model (reflecting a linear relationship between the two variables) with those of a more complex quadratic model (implying the so-called ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’) in Greece. We considered fertility dynamics in three districts (urban, suburban, and rural) of 51 Greek prefectures for the last two decades (2000–2009 and 2010–2019) and controlled for the diverging impact of local contexts at different population density levels. Taken as a measure of ‘maturity’ of regional systems, urban fertility surpassed rural fertility in almost all prefectures of Greece. An additional sign of maturity in metropolitan systems indicates that suburban birth rates are higher than urban birth rates in prefectures with high population density (Athens, Thessaloniki, Heraklion, and Patras). The regression outcomes document a specific response of fertility to regional development, evidencing a spatially differentiated shift from classical urban–rural disparities toward a more complex model with the emergence of suburban poles. From this perspective, fertility divides reflect the evolutions of socioeconomic forces (more or less rapidly) along the urban gradient.

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Section: Logical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions

Nickayin

Nosova

Turco

et al. 2022

Land

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“…In this perspective, understanding how demographic processes, economic downturns, and metropolitan cycles interact, contributes to a better definition of mechanisms at the base of regional and local development paths (Reques Velasco and Rodriguez Rodriguez 2000;Rontos 2007;Kelly et al 2015;Sabater and Graham 2019). It was demonstrated widely how economic downturns led to heterogeneous demographic processes over metropolitan spaces (e.g., García 2010;Pérez 2010;De Rosa and Salvati 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Toward a ‘Migrant Trap’? Local Development, Urban Sustainability, Sociodemographic Inequalities, and the Economic Decline in a Mediterranean Metropolis

et al. 2022

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After years following the breakdown of the Great Recession in Europe, crisis-driven urban shrinkage can be adequately investigated considering changes over time in selected demographic indicators, with a specific focus on migration. Using official statistics and a literature review, the present study documents the inherent demographic decline in metropolitan Athens (Greece) as a response to economic stagnation after a long-lasting expansion. The empirical results of our study delineate metropolitan shrinkage in Southern Europe as a process associated with complex socioeconomic conditions leading to (possibly counterintuitive) demographic outcomes as far as migration trends are concerned. Recession has determined unsustainable economic conditions especially for non-native population segments, promoting both class and ethnic segregation. The negative migration balance in the 2010s led to an intense population decline hitting settlements made already demographically fragile because of low fertility and aging. Athens became a sort of ‘migrant trap’, being progressively unattractive for incoming migration flows—both internal and international—and losing an increasingly high number of non-native residents settling in the area, especially during the ‘gold’ decade of the 2004 Olympics. A sudden reduction in immigration rates reflected both economic (recession) and non-economic (population aging, fertility reduction, and childbearing postponement) factors, causing an incipient shrinkage after secular urban growth. The empirical results of our study add to the traditional literature on ‘industrial cities shrinkage’ in Europe and contribute to (re)formulate short- and medium-term development scenarios in large agglomerations, shedding further light on the role of migration in crisis-driven processes of urban decline in Mediterranean Europe.

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Polycentric development and local fertility in metropolitan regions: An empirical analysis for Barcelona, Spain

López‐Gay

Salvati

2020

Population Space and Place

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The present study verifies if spatial variability in local fertility reflects the shift from a monocentric dense settlement model towards a polycentric metropolis organised in central cores and subcentral locations. The spatial distribution of a crude birth rate in Barcelona's province was investigated for a long time span (1975–2018), identifying distinctive trends within five concentric rings around Barcelona at four subperiods (1975–1985, 1986–1996, 1997–2007 and 2008–2018). Using multivariate exploratory statistics, local fertility rates were correlated with background indicators delineating the socio‐economic profile of each municipality in the study area. Fertility rates decreased with the distance from downward Barcelona and with population density. In the first time interval (1975–1985), fertility levels—higher in subcentral municipalities and peri‐urban locations than in downtown Barcelona—were positively associated with urban growth. In the following two subperiods (1986–1996 and 1997–2007), the contribution of local fertility to urban growth decreased significantly, reaching the lowest‐low figures at the end of the 1980s. In the most recent time interval (2008–2018), a moderate (and spatially heterogeneous) recovery of fertility rates was observed in subcentral locations. Demographic processes underlying Barcelona's expansion provide evidence in favour of a positive relationship between polycentric development and local fertility. Our article finally debates on the use of fertility indicators in the assessment of monocentric versus polycentric (metropolitan) growth in advanced economies.

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The seven demographic Spains. Inter-municipal contrasts in age structure : fertility and migration are the determining factors

Cited by 8 publications

References 2 publications

Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions

Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions

Toward a ‘Migrant Trap’? Local Development, Urban Sustainability, Sociodemographic Inequalities, and the Economic Decline in a Mediterranean Metropolis

Polycentric development and local fertility in metropolitan regions: An empirical analysis for Barcelona, Spain

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