The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases

Du, Zhanwei; Xu, Xiao-Ke; Wu, Ye; Wang, Lin; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

doi:10.1101/2020.02.19.20025452

Cited by 110 publications

(131 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In order to investigate the variation of with respect to the serial interval, we carry out a sensitivity analysis by changing the mean of the serial interval from 4 to 8 days, the standard deviation (Std) from 3 to 5. The sensitivity analysis is reported in Table 2, and we notice that increases when the mean of the serial interval increases and we remark that serial interval examined by recent studies is shorter than that earlier estimation [22][23][24] . It also follows from Table 2 that increasing Std of the serial interval only slightly decreases the estimated for a given mean of the serial interval.…”

Section: Model-free Estimation For Andmentioning

confidence: 69%

Lessons drawn from China and South Korea for managing COVID-19 epidemic: insights from a comparative modeling study

Tang

Xia

Bragazzi

et al. 2020

Preprint

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We conducted a comparative study of COVID-19 epidemic in three different settings: mainland China, the Guangdong province of China and South Korea, by formulating two disease transmission dynamics models incorporating epidemic characteristics and setting-specific interventions, and fitting the models to multi-source data to identify initial and effective reproduction numbers and evaluate effectiveness of interventions. We estimated the initial basic reproduction number for South Korea, the Guangdong province and mainland China as 2.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): (2.5, 2.7)), 3.0 (95%CI: (2.6, 3.3)) and 3.8 (95%CI: (3.5,4.2)), respectively, given a serial interval with mean of 5 days with standard deviation of 3 days. We found that the effective reproduction number for the Guangdong province and mainland China has fallen below the threshold 1 since February 8 th and 18 th respectively, while the effective reproduction number for South Korea remains high, suggesting that the interventions implemented need to be enhanced in order to halt further infections. We also project the epidemic trend in South Korea under different scenarios where a portion or the entirety of the integrated package of interventions in China is used. We show that a coherent and integrated approach with stringent public health interventions is the key to the success of containing the epidemic in China and specially its provinces outside its epicenter, and we show that this approach can also be effective to mitigate the burden of the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea. The experience of outbreak control in mainland China should be a guiding reference for the rest of the world including South Korea. E: mean of serial interval, Std: standard deviation of serial interval.

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Section: Model-free Estimation For Andmentioning

confidence: 69%

Lessons drawn from China and South Korea for managing COVID-19 epidemic: insights from a comparative modeling study

Tang

Xia

Bragazzi

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…We predicted that public health officials would have to identify and quarantine these imported cases within a week of arrival to limit the risk of transmission, with earlier detection of cases being more efficient. Early detection of cases could be critical, given recent studies estimating a shorter serial interval than previously reported, assuming transmission occurs during the asymptomatic period of infection (10,29). As of February 21, there are at least 14 countries that have reported human-tohuman transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (8).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak

Wells

Sah

Moghadas

et al. 2020

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

511

444

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The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since the outbreak was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed in 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures have been enforced in China and other countries to limit the spread of the outbreak. We estimate the impact of these control measures and investigate the role of the airport travel network on the global spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Our results show that the daily risk of exporting at least a single SARS CoV-2 case from mainland China via international travel exceeded 95% on January 13, 2020. We found that 779 cases (95% CI: 632 to 967) would have been exported by February 15, 2020 without any border or travel restrictions and that the travel lockdowns enforced by the Chinese government averted 70.5% (95% CI: 68.8 to 72.0%) of these cases. In addition, during the first three and a half weeks of implementation, the travel restrictions decreased the daily rate of exportation by 81.3% (95% CI: 80.5 to 82.1%), on average. At this early stage of the epidemic, reduction in the rate of exportation could delay the importation of cases into cities unaffected by the COVID-19 outbreak, buying time to coordinate an appropriate public health response.

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“…WHO has positioned SARS-CoV-2 as a global pandemic, and asymptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection gradually appear 3 As the epidemic develops, the proportion of asymptomatic patients is getting higher and higher (up to 19% in the onset after February 1 st , 2020). The mean latency of asymptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection was prolonged (10.5 days), but the hospital length of stay was shortened (14.3 days).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As of March 15, 2020, China has accumulated 81,048 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection and a mortality rate of 3.95 %, also, there is a total of 64322 cases expect China, with a mortality rate of 3.51% 1,2 . The proportion of asymptomatic patients has gradually increased 3 . Asymptomatic patients are still highly contagious, paying special attention to the epidemiological characteristics of asymptomatic patients is of great significance for the control of the epidemic.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High incidence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, Chongqing, China

Tao

Cheng

Wen

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Background: SARS-CoV-2 has been a global pandemic, but the emergence of asymptomatic patients has caused difficulties in the prevention of the epidemic. Therefore, it is significant to understand the epidemiological characteristics of asymptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: In this single-center, retrospective and observational study, we collected data from 167 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection treated in Chongqing Public Health Medical Center (Chongqing, China) from January to March 2020. The epidemiological characteristics and variable of these patients were collected and analyzed. Findings: 82.04% of the SARS-CoV-2 infected patients had a travel history in Wuhan or a history of contact with returnees from Wuhan, showing typical characteristics of imported cases, and the proportion of severe Covid-19 patients was 13.2%, of which 59% were imported from Wuhan. For the patients who was returnees from Wuhan, 18.1% was asymptomatic patients. In different infection periods, compared with the proportion after 1/31/2020, the proportion of asymptomatic patient among SARS-CoV-2 infected patient was higher(19% VS 1.5%). In different age groups, the proportion of asymptomatic patient was the highest(28.6%) in children group under 14, next in elder group over 70 (27.3%). Compared with mild and common Covid-19 patients, the mean latency of asymptomatic was longer (11.25 days VS 8.86 days), but the hospital length of stay was shorter (14.3 days VS 16.96 days) . Conclusion: The SARS-CoV-2 prevention needs to focus on the screening of asymptomatic patients in the community with a history of contact with the imported population, especially for children and the elderly population.

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The serial interval of COVID-19 from publicly reported confirmed cases

Cited by 110 publications

References 16 publications

Lessons drawn from China and South Korea for managing COVID-19 epidemic: insights from a comparative modeling study

Lessons drawn from China and South Korea for managing COVID-19 epidemic: insights from a comparative modeling study

Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak

High incidence of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, Chongqing, China

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