Lessons drawn from China and South Korea for managing COVID-19 epidemic: insights from a comparative modeling study

Abstract

We conducted a comparative study of COVID-19 epidemic in three different settings: mainland China, the Guangdong province of China and South Korea, by formulating two disease transmission dynamics models incorporating epidemic characteristics and setting-specific interventions, and fitting the models to multi-source data to identify initial and effective reproduction numbers and evaluate effectiveness of interventions. We estimated the initial basic reproduction number for South Korea, the Guangdong province and mainland China as 2.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): (2.5, 2.7)), 3.0 (95%CI: (2.6, 3.3)) and 3.8 (95%CI: (3.5,4.2)), respectively, given a serial interval with mean of 5 days with standard deviation of 3 days. We found that the effective reproduction number for the Guangdong province and mainland China has fallen below the threshold 1 since February 8 th and 18 th respectively, while the effective reproduction number for South Korea remains high, suggesting that the interventions implemented need to be enhanced in order to halt further infections. We also project the epidemic trend in South Korea under different scenarios where a portion or the entirety of the integrated package of interventions in China is used. We show that a coherent and integrated approach with stringent public health interventions is the key to the success of containing the epidemic in China and specially its provinces outside its epicenter, and we show that this approach can also be effective to mitigate the burden of the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea. The experience of outbreak control in mainland China should be a guiding reference for the rest of the world including South Korea. E: mean of serial interval, Std: standard deviation of serial interval.

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