The effect of control measures on COVID-19 transmission in Italy: Comparison with Guangdong province in China

Abstract

Background COVID-19 has spread all around the world. Italy is one of the worst affected countries in Europe. Although there is a trend of relief, the epidemic situation hasn’t stabilized yet. This study aims to investigate the dynamics of the disease spread in Italy and provide some suggestions on containing the epidemic. Methods We compared Italy’s status at the outbreak stage and control measures with Guangdong Province in China by data observation and analysis. A modified autonomous SEIR model was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic and transmission potential during the early stage of the outbreak in Italy. We also utilized a time-dependent dynamic model to study the future disease dynamics in Italy. The impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures on epidemic was investigated through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Results The comparison of specific measures implemented in the two places and the time when the measures were initiated shows that the initial prevention and control actions in Italy were not sufficiently timely and effective. We estimated parameter values based on available cumulative data and calculated the basic reproduction number to be 4.32 before the national lockdown in Italy. Based on the estimated parameter values, we performed numerical simulations to predict the epidemic trend and evaluate the impact of contact limitation, detection and diagnosis, and individual behavior change due to media coverage on the epidemic. Conclusions Italy was in a severe epidemic status and the control measures were not sufficiently timely and effective in the beginning. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including contact restrictions and improvement of case recognition, play an important role in containing the COVID-19 epidemic. The effect of individual behavior changes due to media update of the outbreak cannot be ignored. For policy-makers, early and strict blockade measures, fast detection and improving media publicity are key to containing the epidemic.

The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

“…Consequently, an increased number of infections is likely to follow. This is in tandem with evidence from developed countries where the transmission dynamics and effectiveness of control measures have been rigorously studied [ 8 , 9 ]. However, another plausible explanation for the increase in the number of confirmed cases could be the improved testing capacity in the country which coincided with the lockdown relaxation.…”

“…where a, c, f and k are intercepts; b, d, e, g, h, j and m are slopes which are estimated by least square estimation, x is the time-point and ɛ's are mutually uncorrelated random errors with mean (0) and common variance (σ 2 ); df is the degree of freedom where the transmission dynamics and effectiveness of control measures have been rigorously studied [8,9]. However, another plausible explanation for the increase in the number of confirmed cases could be the improved testing capacity in the country which coincided with the lockdown relaxation.…”

SARS-CoV-2 and Asbestos Exposure: Can Our Experience With Mesothelioma Patients Help Us Understand the Psychological Consequences of COVID-19 and Develop Interventions?

“…Workers can limit their exposure to asbestos by using personal protective equipment (e.g., masks, gloves, and suits); additionally, the risk of exposure for workers and the general public can be minimized by providing information and promoting awareness of the health-related effects and through compliance with Italian law 257/1992 and related legislation that prohibits production involving asbestos and requires the implementation of asbestos remediation processes. The spread of COVID-19 can likewise be limited by providing information on the risks and health-related effects, thereby increasing public awareness of preventative measures and promoting the adoption of health-protective individual behaviors (e.g., hand-washing, wearing personal protective equipment, and social distancing and restrictions to outdoor gatherings) ( Hellewell et al, 2020 ; Liu et al, 2020 ; Xu et al, 2020 ). However, these measures undermine a fundamental need of humans to socialize and engage in relationships, as well as norms of reciprocity, social trust, and support; they also require individuals and communities to utilize adaptive resources that rely on bonding, bridging, and linking aspects of social capital to respond to public health threats ( Szreter and Woolcock, 2004 ) and pandemics ( Chuang et al, 2015 ; Pitas and Ehmer, 2020 ).…”

Effects of control measures and their importance on COVID-19 transmission dynamics

“…Zhang et al 2 found that limiting the mobility of the general population is more important than early detection and isolation during early stages of the outbreak in mainland China. Liu et al 3 found that earlier and stricter lockdown implementation yields better control than later or more relaxed measures. Most studies focus on specific control measures and show their positive benefit.…”