The Roles of Adolescent Occupational Expectations and Preparation in Adult Suicide and Drug Poisoning Deaths within a Shifting Labor Market

Abstract

Research suggests that economic declines contribute to mortality risks from suicide and drug poisoning, but how the economy impacts individuals’ risks of these deaths has been challenging to specify. Building on recent theoretical advances, we investigate how adolescent occupational expectations and preparation contribute to suicide and drug poisoning deaths in a shifting economy. We use High School and Beyond data linked to adult mortality records for men that were exposed to a decline in labor market share and wages in predominantly blue-collar occupations during early adulthood. We find that adolescent men who expected these occupations had increased risks of suicide and drug poisoning death as adults net of educational and occupational attainment in early adulthood. Family background and occupational preparation are risk factors for death by drug poisoning but not suicide. Our findings improve our understanding of how labor market uncertainty shapes individuals’ vulnerability to suicide and drug poisoning death.

Revisiting Health Disparities Linked to “Some College”: Incorporating Gender and High School Experiences

“…Given recent evidence that adolescent occupational expectations matter for adult health, we might be better able to explain disparities between subbaccalaureate and baccalaureate health. In particular, occupational attainments can be more volatile among workers without a bachelor’s degree due to changing labor markets, resulting in disparities in suicide and drug poisoning deaths (Carroll et al 2022). These mortality disparities are likely to carry precursors in general mental or physical health, in ways that could shed greater light on these contingent mechanisms.…”

“…As for any specific expectations concerning how high school experiences might confound links between postsecondary attainment and adult health, these experiences represent a heterogeneous set of exposures leading to complex trajectories of health. For instance, high schools configure college-preparatory coursework and occupational expectations, which themselves influence health conditional on final attainments and prevailing labor market conditions during adulthood (Carroll et al 2022). Furthermore, experiences of achievement or social integration during high school influence adult health differently depending on heterogenous postsecondary pathways (e.g., Crosnoe and Riegle-Crumb 2007).…”