The Role of the Hypothesis and the Evidence in the Trait Hypothesis Testing Process

Evett, Sophia R.; Devine, Patricia G.; Hirt, Edward R.; Price, Jana L.

doi:10.1006/jesp.1994.1022

Cited by 24 publications

(32 citation statements)

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“…Because clients naturally expect to receive confirming information, merely presenting information is not sufficient to elicit or reinforce a confirmation bias (Evett, Devine, Hirt, & Price, 1994). Informers must first establish a premise; then they can willfully bias (i.e., manipulate) the information so that the likely outcomes either will confirm or will disconfirm the original premise.…”

Section: Disconfirming Information and Hypothesis Preservation Biasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Confidence, Information Usefulness, and Information Seeking Intention in the Presence of Disconfirming Information

2014

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The increasing use of data visualization for displaying information in a transdisciplinary environment raises issues about client information seeking in the decision-making processes. Field experts and individuals with high confidence tend to seek less information for their decisions than non-experts and individuals who are less confident. This work fills a gap about the effect of the information display format, visual or nonvisual, upon the client's decision. In the context of data visualization and confirmation bias, this work provides needed research on computer aided information seeking in a decision-making, informing environment. Guided by the theories of confirmation bias and cognitive fit, we propose and test a model that investigates the impact of apriori decision confidence on seeking more information and information usefulness. Findings indicate that both information presentation type and confirmation bias affect the decision process of the information seeker. Findings also indicate that overall, the higher the confidence, the less likely users will find disconfirming evidence useful.

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Section: Disconfirming Information and Hypothesis Preservation Biasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Confidence, Information Usefulness, and Information Seeking Intention in the Presence of Disconfirming Information

2014

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“…A hypothesis-testing question is positive when a positive answer ("yes") supports the working hypothesis (e.g., testing the hypothesis that an individual is extroverted by asking "Do you enjoy making new acquaintances?"). Evett et al (1994) found that 67.6% of participants selected positive questions when testing the hypothesis that an individual was introverted/extroverted; this finding is consistent with several studies indicating that people are prone to use a positive testing strategy (e.g., Dardenne & Leyens, 1995;Devine et al, 1990;Klayman, 1995;Klayman & Ha, 1987;Skov & Sherman, 1986;Snyder & Swann, 1978). Furthermore, regardless of the hypothesis tested, more than 90% of participants expected to receive hypothesis-confirming answers (i.e., "yes" answers to positive questions and "no" answers to negative questions).…”

Section: Confirming Expectations In Social Hypothesis Testingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Confirming Expectations in Asymmetric and Symmetric Social Hypothesis Testing

Rusconi

Sacchi

Toscano

et al. 2012

Experimental Psychology

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This article examines individuals' expectations in a social hypothesis testing task. Participants selected questions from a list to investigate the presence of personality traits in a target individual. They also identified the responses that they expected to receive and the likelihood of the expected responses. The results of two studies indicated that when people asked questions inquiring about the hypothesized traits that did not entail strong a priori beliefs, they expected to find evidence confirming the hypothesis under investigation. These confirming expectations were more pronounced for symmetric questions, in which the diagnosticity and frequency of the expected evidence did not conflict. When the search for information was asymmetric, confirming expectations were diminished, likely as a consequence of either the rareness or low diagnosticity of the hypothesis-confirming outcome. We also discuss the implications of these findings for confirmation bias.

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“…Thus, simply comprehending a focal hypothesis may increase its perceived plausibility. In some instances, people assume the validity of hypotheses that they are prompted to test (Evett, Devine, Hirt, & Price, 1994; see also Gettys et aI., 1986). They infer that there is a good reason for testing a hypothesis, even if it is selected arbitrarily.…”

Section: When Does Selective Hypothesis Testing Lead To Error?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Selective hypothesis testing

Sanbonmatsu

Posavac

Kardes

et al. 1998

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review

134

121

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A diverse set of biases that have been found to characterize judgment may be similarly mediated by a process ofselective hypothesis testing. Our paper begins with a definition ofselective hypothesis testing and an explanation of how and when this process leads to error. We then review a diverse and often disconnected set of fmdings in the person perception, judgment, cognition, attitudes, attribution, and rule discovery literatures that can be explained by this process, Finally, we examine the question of why the selective testing of hypotheses occurs. Although the psychological literature suggests that selective hypothesis testing contributes to a variety of errors, in many contexts it may be a useful and efficient strategy that leads to satisfactory judgment.

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The Role of the Hypothesis and the Evidence in the Trait Hypothesis Testing Process

Cited by 24 publications

References 0 publications

Decision Confidence, Information Usefulness, and Information Seeking Intention in the Presence of Disconfirming Information

Decision Confidence, Information Usefulness, and Information Seeking Intention in the Presence of Disconfirming Information

Confirming Expectations in Asymmetric and Symmetric Social Hypothesis Testing

Selective hypothesis testing

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