The role of spatial structure in at‐risk metapopulation recoveries

Metapopulations are often managed as a single contiguous population despite the spatial structure underlying their local and regional dynamics. Disturbances from human activities can also be spatially structured with mortality impacts concentrated to just a few local populations among the aggregate. Scale transitions between local and regional processes can generate emergent properties whereby the whole system can fail to recover as quickly as expected for an equivalent single population. Here, we draw on theory and empirical case studies to ask: what is the consequence of spatially structured ecological and disturbance processes on metapopulation recoveries? We suggest that exploring this question could help address knowledge gaps for managing metapopulations including: Why do some metapopulations recover quickly while others remain collapsed? And, what risks are unaccounted for when metapopulations are managed at aggregate scales? First, we used model simulations to examine how scale transitions among ecological and disturbance conditions interact to generate emergent metapopulation recovery outcomes. In general, we found that the spatial structure of disturbance was a strong determinant of recovery outcomes. Specifically, disturbances that unevenly impacted local populations consistently generated the slowest recoveries and highest conservation risks. Ecological conditions that dampened metapopulation recoveries included low dispersal, variable local demography, sparsely connected habitat networks, and spatially and temporally correlated stochastic processes. Second, we illustrate the unexpected challenges of managing metapopulations by examining the recoveries of three USA federally listed endangered species: Florida Everglade snail kites, California and Alaska sea otters, and Snake River Chinook salmon. Overall, our results show the pivotal role of spatial structure in metapopulation recoveries whereby the interplay between local and regional processes shapes the resilience of the whole system. With this understanding, we provide guidelines for resource managers tasked with conserving and managing metapopulations and identify opportunities for research to support the application of metapopulation theory to real‐world challenges.

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The role of spatial structure in at‐risk metapopulation recoveries

Wilson

Sawyer

Potapova

et al. 2023

Ecological Applications

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Food for fish: Challenges and opportunities for quantifying foodscapes in river networks

Ouellet,

Fullerton,

Kaylor

et al. 2024

WIREs Water

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Riverine fishes face many challenges including habitat degradation and climate change, which alter the productivity of the riverscapes in which fish live, reproduce, and feed. Understanding the watershed portfolio of foraging and growth opportunities that sustain productive and resilient fish populations is important for prioritizing conservation and restoration. However, the spatiotemporal distribution and availability of fish food are poorly understood relative to other factors such as abiotic habitat quantity and quality (e.g., water temperature). In this paper, we build on the concept of “foodscapes,” and describe three components of food for fish, including abundance, accessibility, and quality. We then discuss methodological advances to help address three key questions: (1) Why is food availability hard to estimate? (2) What are the consequences of uncertainty in food availability estimates? and (3) What approaches are available or emerging for quantifying food available to fish? To address the first question, we characterize data acquisition and analytical challenges; for the second, we demonstrate the importance of evaluating and communicating potential consequences of uncertainty; and for the third, we posit opportunities for future work. Collectively, we highlight the need for greater appreciation of the role food plays in stream fish conservation, especially given its critical influence on responses to warming temperatures.This article is categorized under: Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems Water and Life > Conservation, Management, and Awareness Water and Life > Methods

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Coupling state‐of‐the‐art modelling tools for better informed Red List assessments of marine fishes

Grüss,

Winker,

Thorson

et al. 2024

Journal of Applied Ecology

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In the face of biodiversity loss worldwide, it is paramount to quantify species' extinction risk to guide conservation efforts. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN)'s Red List is considered the global standard for evaluating extinction risks. IUCN criteria also inform national extinction risk assessments. Bayesian models, including the state‐of‐the‐art JARA (‘Just Another Red List Assessment’) tool, deliver probabilistic statements about species falling into extinction risk categories, thereby enabling characterisation and communication of uncertainty in extinction risk assessments. We coupled the state‐of‐the‐art VAST (‘Vector Autoregressive Spatio‐Temporal’) modelling tool and JARA, for better informed Red List assessments of marine fishes. In this framework, VAST is fitted to scientific survey catch rate data to provide indices to JARA whose uncertainty is propagated to JARA outcomes suggesting extinction risk categories (under the population reduction criterion). In addition, VAST delivers a valuable habitat assessment to better understand what may be driving extinction risk in the study region. Here, we demonstrate the coupled VAST‐JARA modelling framework by applying it to five contrasting North Sea species, with or without a quantitative stock assessment and with different conservation statuses according to the latest global Red List assessments. The North Sea application coupled with previous assessments and studies suggest that, among the three elasmobranchs, starry ray is in most need of urgent research (and conservation actions where appropriate), followed by spurdog, while lesser‐spotted dogfish is increasing in biomass. Moreover, both the VAST‐JARA modelling framework and previous research indicate that, while European plaice is not of conservation concern, cod has likely met the IUCN criteria for being listed as Endangered recently. Synthesis and applications. The predictions of the VAST‐JARA modelling framework for North Sea species, including JARA output and VAST habitat assessment, constitute valuable supporting information to make interpretations based on Red List guidelines, which will help decision‐makers in their next North Sea Red List assessment. We foresee applications of the modelling framework to assist Red List assessments of numerous marine fishes worldwide. Our modelling framework has many potential advantageous uses, including informing resource management about climate change impacts on species' extinction risks.

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The role of spatial structure in at‐risk metapopulation recoveries

Cited by 3 publications

References 95 publications