Complicating China's Rise: Rural UnderemploymentChina' s economy has doubled in size every eight years since 1979, making it over 32 times bigger now then it was then and the second largest in the world today. 1 Four decades of growth have ushered more than 400 million people in China into the global middle class. 2 According to the World Bank, China is currently an upper middle-income country. The country is the only major economy on earth to report growth in 2020 in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. 3 What are the prospects for China to continue its spectacular economic rise and become a high-income country? In this article, we aim to draw attention to an underappreciated factor that we believe may complicate China's continued economic ascent: hundreds of millions of poorly educated, increasingly underemployed workers hailing from China's rural hinterland.
Middle-Income Countries and Graduates: The Global LandscapeWe begin our argument by categorizing three types of major economies in the post-World War II era. The first comprises countries that were wealthy in 1960 and are still wealthy today, such as the United States, Denmark, Japan,