The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C—insights from integrated assessment modelling

Vuuren, Detlef van; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Vliet, Jasper van; Berg, Maarten van den; Ruijven, Bas van; Koelbl, Barbara Sophia

doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0680-5

Cited by 171 publications

(113 citation statements)

References 52 publications

(60 reference statements)

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“…The continuing rise in emissions is a growing challenge for meeting the international goal of limiting warming to less than 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era, particularly without stringent climate policies to decrease emissions in the near future 2-4 . As negative emissions technologies (NETs) seem ever more necessary 3,[5][6][7][8][9][10] To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

et al. 2015

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NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE | ADVANCE ONLINE PUBLICATION | www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 1 D espite two decades of effort to curb emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), emissions grew faster during the 2000s than in the 1990s 1 , and by 2010 had reached ~50 Gt CO 2 equivalent (CO 2 eq) yr −1 (refs 2,3). The continuing rise in emissions is a growing challenge for meeting the international goal of limiting warming to less than 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era, particularly without stringent climate policies to decrease emissions in the near future 2-4 . As negative emissions technologies (NETs) seem ever more necessary 3,[5][6][7][8][9][10] To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 °C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their widespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.options, to be able to decide which pathways are most desirable for dealing with climate change.There are distinct classes of NETs, such as: (1) bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) 11,12 ; (2) direct air capture of CO 2 from ambient air by engineered chemical reactions (DAC) 13,14 ; (3) enhanced weathering of minerals (EW) 15 , where natural weathering to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere is accelerated and the products stored in soils, or buried in land or deep ocean [16][17][18][19] ; (4) afforestation and reforestation (AR) to fix atmospheric carbon in biomass and soils [20][21][22] ; (5) manipulation of carbon uptake by the ocean, either

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“…Coupled energy-land-use analyses of NETs using IAMs have so far focussed primarily on BECCS 7,34,35 and AR [36][37][38][39] strategies, and suggest that they may have considerable cost-competitive potential. Although other NET options have also been studied 13,19,40 , they are not yet represented in most IAMs.…”

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Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

et al. 2015

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“…As part of the current debate on the role negative emissions might play in reaching the 2-°C target [6][7][8][9][10][11] , we hereby quantify the trade-off between conventional mitigation and negative emissions in the extended RCP2.6. We use a three-step approach to do so.…”

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Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C

Gasser¹,

Guivarch²,

Tachiiri³

et al. 2015

Nat Commun

314

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To limit global warming to o2°C we must reduce the net amount of CO 2 we release into the atmosphere, either by producing less CO 2 (conventional mitigation) or by capturing more CO 2 (negative emissions). Here, using state-of-the-art carbon-climate models, we quantify the trade-off between these two options in RCP2.6: an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario likely to limit global warming below 2°C. In our best-case illustrative assumption of conventional mitigation, negative emissions of 0.5-3 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) per year and storage capacity of 50-250 Gt C are required. In our worst case, those requirements are 7-11 Gt C per year and 1,000-1,600 Gt C, respectively. Because these figures have not been shown to be feasible, we conclude that development of negative emission technologies should be accelerated, but also that conventional mitigation must remain a substantial part of any climate policy aiming at the 2-°C target.

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“…5 For simplicity this analysis ignores ancillary fossil fuel emissions associated with biomass harvest and transport. 6 We assume power plants receive a subsidy equal to the carbon tax for each extra ton of carbon permanently stored in standing forest, slash, or soil. ).…”

Section: Wood Price and The Industrial Timber Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Land-Use Consequences of Woody Biomass with More Stringent Climate Mitigation Scenarios

Mendelsohn¹

2017

JEP

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Integrated assessment models increasingly rely on biomass for energy with ever more stringent mitigation policies. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use. As discussed in the literature, crop bio-energy will lead to substantial pressure to increase deforestation. This paper consequently explores using woody biomass for bioenergy. The paper combines the IAM WITCH with a global dynamic forestry model GTM to determine the optimal size of the woody biomass market, the effects on the timber market, and the resulting forestland under two alternative mitigation strategies. This paper predicts that moving from a moderate to a stringent mitigation policy would increase the demand for woody biomass from 3.7 to 5.2 billion m 3 /yr, increasing forestland by 1049 to 1890 million ha, and shrinking farmland by 748 to 1550 million ha. The stringency of mitigation will therefore have large effects on land use.

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The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C—insights from integrated assessment modelling

Cited by 171 publications

References 52 publications

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C

The Land-Use Consequences of Woody Biomass with More Stringent Climate Mitigation Scenarios

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