The role of littoral cliffs in the niche delimitation on a microendemic plant facing climate change

Abstract

Obligate coastline taxa generally occupy very limited areas, especially when there is a close affinity with a specific coast type. Climate change can be a meaningful threat for them, reducing suitable habitat or forcing migration events. Cistus ladanifer subsp. sulcatus is an endemic plant of Portugal, known to occur only in the top of its south-western coast’s prominent cliffs. In spite of being included in the annexes II and IV of the European Habitats Directive of Natura 2000 Network, this taxon is still understudied, especially regarding the effects of climate change on its distribution. To overcome such gap, Maxent was used to model the current distribution of C. ladanifer subsp. sulcatus and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models, periods (2050 and 2070) and Representation Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5). The results suggested an extensive range contraction in the future, and extinction is a possible scenario. The proximity to littoral cliffs is crucial for this plant’s occurrence, but these formations are irregularly distributed along the coast, hindering range expansions, further inhibited by a small dispersal capacity. Cistus ladanifer subsp. sulcatus will probably remain confined to south-western Portugal in the future, where it will continue to face relevant threats like human activity, reinforcing the need for its conservation.

Multitemporal Land Use and Cover Analysis Coupled with Climatic Change Scenarios to Protect the Endangered Taxon Asphodelus bento-rainhae subsp. bento-rainhae

“…The impact of land use was also verified in a taxon with a restricted habitat in Portugal, Cistus ladanifer subsp. sulcatus , together with global warming [ 40 ], due to future possible fragmentation and the impossibility of the species’ migration in the future. Indeed, human activities in species fragmentation and constraint are quite common, in particular in the Mediterranean region, such as in the case of Abies nebrodensis in Sicily [ 41 ].…”

Dynamic Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Services under the Impact of Land-Use Change in an Arid Inland River Basin in Xinjiang, China

“…PLUS integrates two main components: a rule-mining framework that explores transformation rules using the Land Expansion Analysis Strategy (LEAS) and a CA model based on multitype Random Seeds (CARS). This integration has improved the ability to simulate land-use changes and their impacts, as demonstrated by Wang et al [36], making the PLUS model a promising tool for investigating future land-use scenarios [19,37].…”

Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L.

“…This species is well adapted to hot and dry landscapes and is expected to be highly resilient to climate change, which is starting to increase the aridity of the Mediterranean Basin (Guiot and Cramer, 2016). Nonetheless, doubts remain about the subspecies' sulcatus future resilience since the distribution range will decrease considerably over the current century (Ferreira et al, 2021).…”