Dynamic Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Services under the Impact of Land-Use Change in an Arid Inland River Basin in Xinjiang, China

Kulaixi, Zulipiya; Chen, Yaning; Li, Yupeng; Wang, Chuan

doi:10.3390/rs15092476

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 71 publications

(92 reference statements)

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“…The differences in ESV between regions are mainly caused by differences in land-use structure, terrain, time scale, and research area scale. Zuripia et al estimated that the ecosystem service value of the Kashgar River Basin showed an upward trend from 2000 to 2020 [58]. The CA-Markov model is also one of the more accurate prediction methods currently available.…”

Section: Ecological Conservation and Development In The Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value on the Northern Slopes of the Kunlun Mountains Based on Land Use

Zhang,

Wang,

Tang

et al. 2023

Land

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The ecological environment in the mountainous areas of southern Xinjiang is very sensitive and fragile, and identifying the ecological asset retention within the mountainous areas is a top priority at the current stage in the context of comprehensive environmental management in arid zones. This study examines the conversion and ecosystem service values between different land types within the mountainous areas based on a time series of land-use data from 1990 to 2020, and the results show that: (1) The value of ecosystem services on the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains shows an overall increasing trend. It increased from CNY 308.645 billion in 1990 to CNY 326.550 billion in 2020. Among them, the value of ecosystem services increased significantly between 2000 and 2010, with an increase of CNY 39.857 billion. Regulatory services accounted for more than 66% of the value of each ecosystem service. (2) Land use on the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains has changed significantly since 1990. The areas of cropland, forest land, grassland, watershed, and construction land have all shown an upward trend, with the greatest increase in construction land. The area of unutilized land, on the other hand, has slightly decreased. (3) The value of ecosystem services within the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains was spatially high in the south, low in the north, and higher in the west than in the east. The study also found a significant positive spatial correlation between ecosystem service values. In the spatial distribution, the increasing areas were mainly distributed in the southeast, and the decreasing areas were in the north. Changes in land types are expected to include an increase in the area of grassland and woodland, a decrease in unutilized land and cropland, and an overall improvement in the ecological environment of the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains in the next decade. This study also provides lessons and references for sustainable development and ecological protection in ecologically fragile regions.

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Section: Ecological Conservation and Development In The Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value on the Northern Slopes of the Kunlun Mountains Based on Land Use

Zhang,

Wang,

Tang

et al. 2023

Land

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“…Wang R. Y. et al (2023b) used the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate and predict the spatial development pattern of LULC as well as the changes in carbon stocks in the Greater Bay Area in China in 2030 under multiple scenarios. Kulaixi et al (2023) utilized the PLUS-InVEST model to examine the spatiotemporal distribution and changing patterns of carbon storage under multiple scenarios in an Arid Inland River Basin in Xinjiang, China. Cui et al (2023) used the PLUS model to simulate the future four LULC scenarios and the ecosystem carbon storage was assessed by the InVEST model in Guangdong, China.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the response of carbon sink potential to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions

Wang,

Liu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Introduction: The carbon storage service of ecosystems in ecologically fragile areas is highly sensitive to regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Predicting changes in regional carbon storage under different LULC scenarios is crucial for land use management decisions and exploring carbon sink potential. This study focuses on the Luan River Basin, a typical ecologically fragile area, to analyze the impact of LULC changes on carbon storage.Methods: The PLUS-InVEST model was employed to simulate LULC patterns for the year 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, cropland protection and urban development, and ecological protection. The model projected the future carbon sink potential of the basin under these scenarios.Results: From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage showed a trend of decrease followed by an increase. By 2030, compared to 2020, carbon storage is projected to increase by 16.97% under the ecological protection scenario and decrease by 22.14% under the cropland protection and urban development scenario. The increase in carbon storage was primarily due to the conversion of cropland and grassland to forestland, while the decrease was mainly associated with the conversion of forestland to grassland and cropland, and the transformation of grassland to cropland and construction land. In the potential LULC scenarios of 2030, certain regions within the basin exhibited unstable carbon sink potential, strongly influenced by LULC changes. These areas were predominantly characterized by artificially cultivated forests, shrubs, and agricultural land. Implementing appropriate forest management measures and optimizing agricultural land management practices are essential to enhance carbon sink potential in these regions. Population density, annual average temperature, and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) were the dominant factors driving the spatial variation of carbon sink potential in the Luan River Basin.Discussion: The research results provide a theoretical basis for rational planning of land use and the enhancement of carbon sink potential in ecologically fragile regions.

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“…It finds extensive application in current research on changes in LUC [29,30]. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model serves as a tool to explore the impact of ecosystem changes on benefits to human society [31,32]. It is one of the most widely used models in current CS change studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of the Impacts of Change in Land Use/Cover on Carbon Storage in Multiple Scenarios in the Taihang Mountains, China

Guo,

He,

Jing

et al. 2023

Sustainability

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Research on the spatiotemporal changes in land use/cover (LUC) and carbon storage (CS) in the region of the Taihang Mountains in various developmental scenarios can provide significant guidance for optimizing the structure of LUC and formulating ecologically friendly economic development policies. We employed the PLUS and InVEST models to study change in LUC and CS in the Taihang Mountains from 1990 to 2020. Based on these results, we established three distinct development scenarios: a business-as-usual development scenario, a cropland protection scenario, and an ecological conservation scenario. Based on these three developmental scenarios, we simulated the spatiotemporal changes in LUC and CS in the Taihang Mountains in 2035. The results indicate that: (1) from 1990 to 2020, the CS in the Taihang Mountains increased from 1575.91 Tg to 1598.57 Tg, with a growth rate of approximately 1.44%. The primary source of this growth is attributed to the expansion of forests. (2) In the business-as-usual development scenario, the growth rate of CS in the Taihang Mountains was approximately 0.45%, indicating a slowdown in the trend. This suggests that economic development has the consequences of aggravating human–land conflicts, leading to a deceleration in the growth of CS. (3) In the cropland protection scenario, the increase in the CS in the Taihang Mountains was similar to the CS increase in the business-as-usual development scenario. However, the expansion of cropland dominated by impermeable surfaces, which indicates economic development, was considerably constrained in this scenario. (4) In the ecological conservation scenario, the increase in carbon storage in the Taihang Mountains was 1.16%, which is the fastest among all three scenarios. At the same time, there was a certain degree of development of impermeable surfaces, achieving a balance between economic development and ecological conservation.

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Dynamic Evolution and Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Services under the Impact of Land-Use Change in an Arid Inland River Basin in Xinjiang, China

Cited by 4 publications

References 71 publications

Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value on the Northern Slopes of the Kunlun Mountains Based on Land Use

Analysis and Prediction of Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value on the Northern Slopes of the Kunlun Mountains Based on Land Use

Projecting the response of carbon sink potential to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions

Evaluation of the Impacts of Change in Land Use/Cover on Carbon Storage in Multiple Scenarios in the Taihang Mountains, China

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