Projecting the response of carbon sink potential to land use/land cover change in ecologically fragile regions

Abstract

Introduction: The carbon storage service of ecosystems in ecologically fragile areas is highly sensitive to regional land use/land cover (LULC) changes. Predicting changes in regional carbon storage under different LULC scenarios is crucial for land use management decisions and exploring carbon sink potential. This study focuses on the Luan River Basin, a typical ecologically fragile area, to analyze the impact of LULC changes on carbon storage.Methods: The PLUS-InVEST model was employed to simulate LULC patterns for the year 2030 under three scenarios: natural development, cropland protection and urban development, and ecological protection. The model projected the future carbon sink potential of the basin under these scenarios.Results: From 2000 to 2020, carbon storage showed a trend of decrease followed by an increase. By 2030, compared to 2020, carbon storage is projected to increase by 16.97% under the ecological protection scenario and decrease by 22.14% under the cropland protection and urban development scenario. The increase in carbon storage was primarily due to the conversion of cropland and grassland to forestland, while the decrease was mainly associated with the conversion of forestland to grassland and cropland, and the transformation of grassland to cropland and construction land. In the potential LULC scenarios of 2030, certain regions within the basin exhibited unstable carbon sink potential, strongly influenced by LULC changes. These areas were predominantly characterized by artificially cultivated forests, shrubs, and agricultural land. Implementing appropriate forest management measures and optimizing agricultural land management practices are essential to enhance carbon sink potential in these regions. Population density, annual average temperature, and DEM (Digital Elevation Model) were the dominant factors driving the spatial variation of carbon sink potential in the Luan River Basin.Discussion: The research results provide a theoretical basis for rational planning of land use and the enhancement of carbon sink potential in ecologically fragile regions.