The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere

Guan, Xiaodan; Huang, Jianping; Lin, Pu

doi:10.1038/srep12669

Cited by 86 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The recent cooling over NH land (Cohen et al 2012) was reversed from the previous enhanced warming, which was probably related to the circulation change over extratropical NH (Huang et al 2012;Wallace et al 2012;He et al 2014;Huang et al 2016a;Guan et al 2015;Huang et al 2016b). As suggested by Wallace et al (1995) and He et al (2014), the land-sea thermal contrast can excite feedbacks related with circulation and induces the transition between the pattern of "cold ocean and warm land" (COWL) and "warm ocean and cold land" (WOCL).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…These studies indicate that the previous warming hiatus (about 1940-1975) was significantly related with the AMO signal. The atmospheric ICV over the Atlantic is generally represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Huang et al 1998;Higuchi et al 1999;, which is suggested to have contributed to the recent warming hiatus (Guan et al 2015). In addition, from an energy balance perspective, the hiatus may have been caused by heat transported to deeper layers of the Atlantic and Southern oceans (Chen and Tung 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although this increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has been associated with increasing temperatures, the global mean surface air temperature (SAT) has leveled off since 1998, a phenomenon known as a warming hiatus (IPCC 2013;Kosaka and Xie 2013;England et al 2014;Trenberth et al 2014;Dai et al 2015;Steinman et al 2015;Guan et al 2015) (Fig. 1a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

et al. 2016

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, and the ZTF represents the asymmetry in temperatures between the extratropical large-scale warm and cold zones in the zonal direction. Via the different performance of combined MTF and ZTF, we found that the DMO's modulation effect on SAT was strongest when both weaker (stronger) MTF and stronger (weaker) ZTF occurred simultaneously. And the current hiatus is a result of a downward DMO combined with a weaker MTF and stronger ZTF, which stimulate both a weaker polar vortex and westerly winds, along with the amplified planetary waves, thereby facilitating southward invasion of cold Arctic-air and promoting the blocking formation. The results conclude that the DMO can not only be used to interpret the current warming hiatus, it also suggests that global warming will accelerate again when it swings upward.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

et al. 2016

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“…Huang et al (2012) showed that drylands are most sensitive to global warming; this warming was induced by dynamical and radiative factors. Guan et al (2015a) found that the enhanced warming in drylands was a result of radiativeforced temperature, which has a close relationship with aerosol column burden. The aerosol in drylands has an obvious warming effect (Huang et al, 2006aChen et al, 2010;Ye et al, 2012;Jin et al, 2015), and the aerosol has a wide distribution and tends to have a relatively large optical depth (H. Bi et al, 2011;Liu et al, 2011;, leading to a significant radiative effect in the drylands.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationship between anthropogenic dust and population over global semi-arid regions

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Although anthropogenic dust has received more attention from the climate research community, its dominant role in the production process is still not identified. In this study, we analysed the relationship between anthropogenic dust and population density/change over global semi-arid regions and found that semi-arid regions are major source regions in producing anthropogenic dust. The results showed that the relationship between anthropogenic dust and population is more obvious in cropland than in other land cover types (crop mosaics, grassland, and urbanized regions) and that the production of anthropogenic dust increases as the population density grows to more than 90 persons km −2 . Four selected semi-arid regions, namely East China, India, North America, and North Africa, were used to explore the relationship between anthropogenic dust production and regional population. The most significant relationship between anthropogenic dust and population occurred in an Indian semi-arid region that had a greater portion of cropland, and the high peak of anthropogenic dust probability appeared with 220 persons km −2 of population density and 60 persons km −2 of population change. These results suggest that the influence of population on production of anthropogenic dust in semi-arid regions is obvious in cropland regions. However, the impact does not always have a positive contribution to the production of anthropogenic dust, and overly excessive population will suppress the increase of anthropogenic dust. Moreover, radiative and climate effects of increasing anthropogenic dust need more investigation.

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“…The PLS regression predicts a dependent variable (predictand) based on a set of independent variables (predictors) and has been applied in various types of climate research, including paleoclimate reconstruction (Kalela-Brundin, 1999), diagnosing year-to-year variations in snowpack and hurricanes (Smoliak et al, 2010), examining the accelerated warming over the mid-to-high latitudes of the NH (Wallace et al, 2012), and investigating the recent warming hiatus which is effective in revealing the key role played by the dynamic cooling effect in this hiatus (Guan et al, 2015). In this study, the PLS regression is applied in a pointwise manner, i.e.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Different roles of dynamic and thermodynamic effects in enhanced semi‐arid warming

Guo

Guan

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Enhanced warming in semi-arid regions has received much attention since it was first proposed, but the primary driver of this phenomenon remains unknown. This study applied dynamical adjustment to surface air temperature and partitioned the warming into two separate components: a thermodynamically forced component and a dynamically induced component. The results show that the mean amount of thermodynamic warming in the Northern Hemisphere in the study period 1902-2011 was 1.36 ∘ C/109 years and that the amount of dynamic warming was 0.14 ∘ C/109 years. In the mid-latitude zones of Asia, Europe, and North America, the thermodynamic warming was 1.60, 1.19, and 1.32 ∘ C/109 years, respectively, and the corresponding dynamic warming was 0.26, 0.14, and 0.09 ∘ C/109 years. Obviously, higher thermodynamic temperature warming was observed in semi-arid regions, suggesting that the enhanced semi-arid warming (ESAW) is the result of local thermodynamic effects. Thus, different local thermodynamic effects are responsible for the warming discrepancies in the semi-arid regions of Asia, Europe, and North America. Moreover, the considerable bias of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble mean temperature trend appeared in semi-arid regions rather than other regions indicate that the simulation of semi-arid regions is particularly complex and difficult.

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The role of dynamically induced variability in the recent warming trend slowdown over the Northern Hemisphere

Cited by 86 publications

References 34 publications

The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

The dynamics of the warming hiatus over the Northern Hemisphere

The relationship between anthropogenic dust and population over global semi-arid regions

Different roles of dynamic and thermodynamic effects in enhanced semi‐arid warming

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