The role of conflict and organized violence in international forced migration

Abstract

BACKGROUND The growing relevance of migration in the policy agenda of both host and sending countries asks for a better understanding of factors shaping migration processes. This paper analyzes recent trends of increasing asylum applications and refugee stocks and examines the influence of conflicts, as well as political and economic factors, as primary push and pull factors. OBJECTIVE The main aim is to empirically investigate the relationship that armed conflicts have with first-time asylum applications and refugee stocks in and outside Europe. METHOD We explore different measures that capture the severity and geographical spread of armed conflicts and link them to the dependent variables by fitting a gravity model. RESULTS The intensity of the conflict and where the fighting is taking place explain an essential portion of the variation in flows of asylum applications and stocks of refugees. Results suggest that people flee terror and war but also violence and insecurity emerging from non-conflict-affected areas and perpetrated by different criminal actors. Results also show that economic conditions, the presence of previous migrant communities in the destination country, distance, and presence of a common language between the origin and destination countries are relevant drivers of new asylum applications. Higher rates of asylum recognition by host countries act as an important pull factor, positively correlated with receiving additional new asylum claims.

Applying Concepts and Tools in Demography for Estimating, Analyzing, and Forecasting Forced Migration

“…Ibáñez and Vélez (2008) show that in Colombia, conflict which involves the presence of illegal armed groups, that is, paramilitary or guerrilla, is more likely to result in displacement. Likewise, Conte and Migali (2019) find that the intensity of conflict measured by the number of battle-related deaths is positively correlated with asylum flows. It is therefore possible to estimate the volume of asylum-seeking applications if we know the type and magnitude of the conflict.…”

“…Especially since 2010, the number of forcibly displaced rose rapidly except for the year 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in travel restrictions within and across borders. The increase in the number of people forcibly displaced in the past decade coincides with the increasing intensity of violent conflicts and frequency of extreme climate events Conte and Migali 2019). Therefore, knowing how different drivers contribute to forced migration as well as where displaced persons come from and where they end up is fundamental for policy planning.…”

Demographic scenarios for the EU : migration, population and education

“…Results suggest that people flee terror and war, as well as violence and insecurity emerging from non-conflict-affected areas and areas perpetrated by different criminal groups (Conte and Migali 2018).…”

Migration policies and practices at job market participation: perspectives of highly educated Turks in the US, Canada and Europe

“…The dichotomous conceptualization of economic (voluntary) migrants and political (involuntary) migrants pose a challenge for addressing immigrants with complex migration factors (Disbudak and Purkis, 2016). Using the push/pull model, Conte and Migali (2019, p. 415) find that for asylum seekers, poor democracy and economic conditions (in addition to violence) along with diaspora migrant communities led to forced migration. Our study focuses on Turkish immigrants involuntarily exiled due to political conditions during the 2016 coup attempt and who occupy a higher economic status as professional, skilled workers with presumably greater economic options in host countries.…”