The role of birth cohorts in long‐term trends in liver cirrhosis mortality across eight European countries

Trias‐Llimós, Sergi; Bijlsma, Maarten J.; Janssen, Fanny

doi:10.1111/add.13614

Cited by 24 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 38 publications

(54 reference statements)

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“…Regional comparisons showed that the observed decline of mortality rates started earlier in West compared to East Germany. This pattern is supported by a recent study, suggesting a declining cohort effect on liver cirrhosis mortality which occurred earlier in western and northern European countries compared to eastern European countries . The authors of this study linked the finding to positive changes in alcohol policies that occurred earlier in more economically advanced countries than in less economically advanced countries.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Trends in alcohol‐related mortality in East and West Germany, 1980–2014: age, period and cohort variations

Piontek

Kraus

2018

Addiction

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Trends in alcohol‐related mortality in East and West Germany, 1980–2014: age, period and cohort variations

Piontek

Kraus

2018

Addiction

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“…It is important to note that cohort and lag effects may also be drivers of the disparity between changes in alcohol‐related morbidity and mortality and changes in PCC. Cohort effects may be related in that previous generations may have been drinking at high levels that resulted in death from alcohol‐related diseases so that their alcohol consumption would not be included in current PCC estimates (Trias‐Llimós et al., ). Lag effects may contribute because the time from changes in PCC to the time to first effect for some alcohol‐attributable diseases, such as alcohol‐related cancers, is at least 10 years (Holmes et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

New Estimates of the Mean Ethanol Content of Beer, Wine, and Spirits Sold in the United States Show a Greater Increase in Per Capita Alcohol Consumption than Previous Estimates

Martínez

Kerr

Subbaraman

et al. 2019

Alcoholism Clin & Exp Res

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Background: Recent increases in alcohol-related morbidity and mortality have not occurred alongside notable increases in per capita alcohol consumption (PCC). This discrepancy may be partially due to U.S. PCC estimates not including annual estimates of the percentage of alcohol by volume (%ABV) of beer, wine, and spirits, but rather relying on time-invariant %ABV values.Methods: Building on a prior study covering 1950 to 2002, estimates of the annual mean %ABV of beer, wine, and spirits sold in the United States were calculated using the %ABV of major brands and sales of each beverage type for each state and nationally for the period 2003 to 2016. We applied these estimates to the calculation of annual beverage-specific and total PCC, and made descriptive comparisons between our PCC estimates and those estimates using invariant %ABV values.Results: For all beverage types, our mean %ABV estimates increased nationally and for all but 5 states. The PCC estimates from wine and spirits utilizing variable %ABV values were lower than estimates using invariant %ABV, and consumption from beer was higher. Our total PCC estimates were also lower than %ABV-invariant estimates; however, the percent change for %ABV-invariant estimates was 5.8% compared to a 7.9% change in our %ABV-variant estimates over the 2003 to 2016 period.Conclusions: Given the application of PCC estimates to understand changes in alcohol-related morbidity and mortality, the inclusion of annual estimates of the %ABV of alcoholic beverages sold in the United States is necessary to ensure the precision of PCC measures such that the conclusions drawn from these applications are accurate and valid.

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“…When estimating future alcohol-attributable mortality, it is essential to understand past trends, which differ widely across European countries depending on their drinking cultures. Alcoholattributable mortality has been gradually decreasing in Southern Europe since around the 1970s, but the long-term trends in other European countries have been more irregular (5,6).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology

Trias‐Llimós

Bardoutsos

Janssen³

2020

Preprint

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Background: Alcohol is a major public health issue in Europe. Although future estimates of alcohol-attributable mortality can aid public health policy making, forecasts are scarce. Moreover, previous forecasts did not include the cohort dimension, despite the important role birth cohorts play in determining alcohol-attributable mortality trends. We forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change. Within Western Europe, France has one of the highest levels of alcohol-attributable mortality.Methods: For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly-attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period, and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change). Results: Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6-14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1-23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7-1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2-2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline). The peak of the inverse u-shaped age pattern of alcohol-attributable mortality (currently at around age 65) is expected to shift towards older ages, and an additional hump in the age pattern is projected that moves towards higher ages over time, and is more extended in the cohort scenario.Conclusions: Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France’s levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.

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The role of birth cohorts in long‐term trends in liver cirrhosis mortality across eight European countries

Abstract: Background and aims: Understanding why inequalities in alcohol-related mortality trends by sex and

Cited by 24 publications

References 38 publications

Trends in alcohol‐related mortality in East and West Germany, 1980–2014: age, period and cohort variations

Trends in alcohol‐related mortality in East and West Germany, 1980–2014: age, period and cohort variations

New Estimates of the Mean Ethanol Content of Beer, Wine, and Spirits Sold in the United States Show a Greater Increase in Per Capita Alcohol Consumption than Previous Estimates

Future alcohol-attributable mortality in France using a novel generalizable age-period-cohort projection methodology

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