The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones

Abstract

Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the fi rst global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defi ned here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. A disproportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to 11 per cent). Almost twothirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modifi cation.

Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

“…Sea level rise is expected to be one of the most profound consequences of climate change and has been identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as a serious problem threatening a large percentage of the earth's coasts, atolls, estuaries and river deltas (Nicholls et al 2007;McGranahan et al 2007). Global mean sea level rise, due to rising ocean temperatures and mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, is currently estimated as 3.2 ± 0.4 mm year -1 over 1993(Church and White 2011 and is projected to accelerate under climate change.…”

Economic, equitable, and affordable adaptations to protect coastal settlements against storm surge inundation

“…Starting to develop such insights is important, however, because of the increasingly widespread nature of the problem faced by coastal communities around the world (McGranahan et al 2007). Studying specific adaptations in specific locations is vital.…”

“…Although economics plays a part in both equitability and affordability, most studies of the drivers of community adaptation have been qualitative (Abel et al 2011;Sterr 2008), with few providing a quantitative underpinning for their analysis (Granger 2003;McGranahan et al 2007). At the other end of the spectrum, many quantitative studies have analysed the overall economic costs of inundation to infrastructure (Genovese et al 2011;Hall et al 2003;McLeod et al 2010;Sterr 2008;Wang et al 2010;Yohe et al 1996) and property values (Bin et al 2011;Yohe et al 1996).…”

Uniendo ingeniería y ecología: la protección costera basada en ecosistemas

“…Globalmente, las tormentas y los agentes costeros amenazan cientos de millones de personas e infraestructura en las costas, con importantes impactos económicos [1,2]. En todo el mundo más de 600 millones de personas viven en zonas costeras (datos del año 2000) [3].…”