The Rio de Janeiro early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides: Analysis of performance for the years 2010–2013

Calvello, Michele; d’Orsi, Ricardo Neiva; Piciullo, Luca; Paes, Nelson; Magalhães, Marcelo Arbo; Lacerda, Willy A.

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.10.005

Cited by 78 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Two categories of LEWSs can be defined on the basis of their scale of analysis and operation: "local" systems and "regional" systems (International Centre of Geohazards, 2012; Thiebes et al, 2012;Calvello et al, 2015b). ReLEWSs are used to assess the probability of occurrence of landslides over appropriately defined homogeneous alert zones of relevant extension, typically through the prediction and monitoring of meteorological variables, in order to give generalized warnings to the population.…”

Section: Regional Systems For Rainfall-induced Landslidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The literature presents many examples of landslide early warning systems operating at local scale (Lollino et al, 2002;Blikra, 2008;Intrieri et al, 2012;Thiebes et al, 2013b; among others), while the scientific references to regional warning systems are much rarer (Wilson (2004), NOAA-USGS (2005), Lagomarsino et al (2013), Calvello et al (2015b), Stähli et al (2015) and references therein). The characteristics of landslide warning systems at local scale are strongly affected by numerous constraints and factors, from time to time different, related to the characteristics of the boundary value problem to address.…”

Section: Regional Systems For Rainfall-induced Landslidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the USA, the US Geological Survey has long been working on ReLEWSs in a number of states: California, Colorado, Oregon and Washington (Chleborad, 2000;Chleborad et al, 2008;Baum and Godt, 2010;NOAA-USGS, 2005;Cannon et al, 2011). The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows vary across the USA; for instance, in the city of Seattle, WA, the alert system includes four levels -Null, Outlook, Watch and Alarm -and warnings are based on the measured or expected exceedance of cumulated rainfall and intensity-duration thresholds combined with criteria using monitored soil moisture (Godt et al, 2006).…”

Section: Regional Systems For Rainfall-induced Landslidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Intrieri et al (2013) describe LEWSs as the balanced combination of four main activities: design, monitoring, forecasting and education. Calvello et al (2015b) state that the objectives of LEWSs should be defined by considering the scale of analysis and the type of landslides; they also represent the process of designing and managing landslide early warning systems by a "wheel" with four concentric rings identifying: the necessary skills, the activities to be performed, the means to be used and the basic elements of the system. Figure 1 and Table 1 show an original schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfallinduced landslides.…”

Section: Early Warning Systems Warning Models and Correlation Lawsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

Calvello

Piciullo

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.A schematic of the components of regional early warning systems for rainfall-induced landslides is herein proposed, based on a clear distinction between warning models and warning systems. According to this framework an early warning system comprises a warning model as well as a monitoring and warning strategy, a communication strategy and an emergency plan. The paper proposes the evaluation of regional landslide warning models by means of an original approach, called the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method, comprising three successive steps: identification and analysis of the events, i.e., landslide events and warning events derived from available landslides and warnings databases; definition and computation of a duration matrix, whose elements report the time associated with the occurrence of landslide events in relation to the occurrence of warning events, in their respective classes; evaluation of the early warning model performance by means of performance criteria and indicators applied to the duration matrix. During the first step the analyst identifies and classifies the landslide and warning events, according to their spatial and temporal characteristics, by means of a number of model parameters. In the second step, the analyst computes a time-based duration matrix with a number of rows and columns equal to the number of classes defined for the warning and landslide events, respectively. In the third step, the analyst computes a series of model performance indicators derived from a set of performance criteria, which need to be defined by considering, once again, the features of the warning model. The applicability, potentialities and limitations of the EDuMaP method are tested and discussed using real landslides and warning data from the municipal early warning system operating in Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).

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Section: Regional Systems For Rainfall-induced Landslidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Regional Systems For Rainfall-induced Landslidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Regional Systems For Rainfall-induced Landslidesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Early Warning Systems Warning Models and Correlation Lawsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

Calvello

Piciullo

2016

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…At present, although eco-security early warning research is still in the exploration stage, overseas and domestic scholars have achieved results in this area. Overseas scholars have performed many studies in climate and ecosystem shock prediction [2], natural disaster advanced warning [3][4][5][6][7][8], environmental health assessment [9], eco-environmental evolution [10], ecosystem function [11], and ecosystem stability [12], etc. Domestic scholars have performed many studies in ecological security mechanisms, theoretical study, early-warning models [13], etc., involving cities, landscape ecology, heritage sites, agriculture, soil, hydrology, and many other aspects [13][14][15][16][17][18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plateau Mountain Eco-Security Early Warning Research

Ma¹,

Zhang²,

Yang³

et al. 2016

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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At present, overseas and domestic eco-security early warning research is in the exploratory stage. This paper uses Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture as the research object and constructs an evaluation index system based on the pressure-state-response (P-S-R) conceptual model. This study analyzes eco-security early warning in the study area using the granger causality test model, the entropy weight method, and the matter-element model, and analyzes the present eco-security situation and future development trends in the study area. The author hopes that this study can further enrich eco-security early warning research and provide a scientifi c reference for ecological security in the study area. The specifi c research results were as follows: 1) This article evaluated the plateau mountain ecological security early warning system, and the application of the Granger causality test was further implemented with targeted and objective index system selection, achieving a one-to-one analysis in the results and further enriching the research theory of the importance of eco-security early warning systems. 2) On the whole, the eco-security situation in the study area is gradually moving in a positive direction, but the low level of overall eco-security continues to cause great pressure. 3) From 2005 to 2014, the study area gradually attached greater importance to the construction of ecosecurity, but the overall eco-security level is low, and the overall eco-security regulation capacity is insuffi cient. 4) The key eco-security pressure in the study area mainly derives from industrial and agricultural development, although the control power is gradually increasing, but the control effect is not obvious, and the contradiction between ecological security and socio-economic development is still very obvious. 5) The study area is a typical earthquake-prone area, and fi nancial input into the governance of natural geological disasters due to the high frequency of earthquakes is gradually increasing; but the study area still needs to increase its investments.

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Dynamic modeling of an early warning system for natural disasters

et al. 2019

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Natural disasters have many consequences in terms of human lives, material, economic, and/or environmental damages. Among preventive and mitigation measures, it is recognized that early warning systems (EWS) are an effective and essential tool to minimize damages caused by natural disasters. Using the experience of CEMADEN (National Early Warning and Monitoring Centre of Natural Disasters) in Brazil, this paper aims to investigate, through a systems approach, what factors may interfere with the effectiveness of EWSs. A case study was developed based on interviews with experts from CEMADEN. Those interviews generated cognitive maps that translated the perceptions of the experts and were used to structure the problem and to support the construction of a systemic model. The model allowed the analysis of the EWS, identifying behaviors, as reinforcement and balancing loops, not always intuitive, to support better management and planning decisions to improve the system effectiveness.

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The Rio de Janeiro early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides: Analysis of performance for the years 2010–2013

Cited by 78 publications

References 16 publications

Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

Assessing the performance of regional landslide early warning models: the EDuMaP method

Plateau Mountain Eco-Security Early Warning Research

Dynamic modeling of an early warning system for natural disasters

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