Natural disasters have many consequences in terms of human lives, material, economic, and/or environmental damages. Among preventive and mitigation measures, it is recognized that early warning systems (EWS) are an effective and essential tool to minimize damages caused by natural disasters. Using the experience of CEMADEN (National Early Warning and Monitoring Centre of Natural Disasters) in Brazil, this paper aims to investigate, through a systems approach, what factors may interfere with the effectiveness of EWSs. A case study was developed based on interviews with experts from CEMADEN. Those interviews generated cognitive maps that translated the perceptions of the experts and were used to structure the problem and to support the construction of a systemic model. The model allowed the analysis of the EWS, identifying behaviors, as reinforcement and balancing loops, not always intuitive, to support better management and planning decisions to improve the system effectiveness.

Goal: The purpose of this paper is to build the structure of a multicriteria decision model that supports definition and prioritization of strategic initiatives by an institution performing in the prevention of natural disasters. Design/Methodology/Approach: The Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodological process is adopted to build a multicriteria evaluation model. A two-phase process is followed, employing a top-down approach, based on Value-Focused Thinking (VFT), in combination with the Multi Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) method. The participants of the MCDA process were experts of the control room in the case study institution. Results: The proposed methodology not only helped decision makers to enumerate a number of strategic initiatives to accomplish the organizational objective, but also helped them to establish a structured procedure to prioritize these initiatives. Limitations: Absence of a criterion related to the organization budget in the model; limited scope of participation in the process; absence of quantitative criteria. Practical implications: The major practical contributions are as follows: an structured model that supports the strategic planning process; a better allocation of resources (human, financial, and materials) in projects that are truly aligned with the strategic objective of the organization; the organizational learning coming from the exercise of reflection on values, objectives and preferences; and the legitimacy of decisions as a result of the participative character of the construction process of the model. Originality/Value: In this study, a multicriteria evaluation model is structured and applied as support for strategic decision making in the context of a natural disaster early warning system. The model has a significant application potential, since it encourages the adoption of structured decision support methods rather than traditional empirical decision making. Thus, the value of the study lies in the contribution that the proposed model can offer to more effective disaster prevention.

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O crescimento acelerado da população nas cidades brasileiras, aliado à falta de um planejamento urbano adequado, tem o problema da mobilidade urbana como uma de suas consequências mais aparentes. O artigo aborda os impactos da expansão urbana na mobilidade para o município de São José dos Campos/SP. A falta de integração entre os diferentes modais e os impactos causados no transporte urbano no cenário municipal são os principais pontos que motivam este estudo. Assim, o objetivo do trabalho foi compreender e estruturar esta situação problemática e propor ações estratégicas, com vistas à promoção da mobilidade urbana sustentável naquele município. Para isto, será adotada uma abordagem multimetodológica que consistirá na combinação dos Mapas Cognitivos com o SCA (Strategic Choice Approach), apoiado pela utilização da matriz GUT (Gravidade/Urgência/Tendência). Como resultado foi possível definir um pacote de compromissos de decisões e ações estratégicas, que visem melhorar a infraestrutura de transporte atual e preparar o município para futuras atualizações, já considerando a multimodalidade como alternativa.