The regional variation in climate elasticity and climate contribution to runoff across China

Yang, Hanbo; Qi, Jia; Xu, Xiaowen; Yang, Dawen; Lv, Huafang

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.062

Cited by 155 publications

(136 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…A number of functions have been used to describe F (Table 1 in Yang et al, 2014). The Fu (Fu, 1981) and Choudhury (Choudhury, 1999) equations have received the most attention and application (Zhang et al, 2004;Zhou et al, 2015).…”

Section: Budyko Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determining the hydrological responses to climate variability and land use/cover change in the Loess Plateau with the Budyko framework

Gao

Wang

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

195

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• Elasticities of Q and R c to climate variability and catchment characteristic were derived.• Contributions of climate variability and land use/cover changes to reductions of Q and R c were determined.• Relationship between ecological restoration and hydrological responses was quantified. Understanding and quantifying the impacts of land use/cover change and climate variability on hydrological responses are important to the design of water resources and land use management strategies for adaptation to climate change, especially in water-limited areas. The elasticity method was used to detect the responses of streamflow and runoff coefficient to various driving factors in 15 main catchments of the Loess Plateau, China between 1961 and 2009. The elasticity of streamflow (Q) and runoff coefficient (R c ) to precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (E 0 ), and catchment characteristics (represented by the parameter m in Fu's equation) were derived based on the Budyko hypothesis. There were two critical values of m = 2 and E 0 /P = 1 for the elasticity of Q and R c . The hydrological responses were mainly affected by catchment characteristics in water-limited regions (E 0 /P N 1), and in humid areas (E 0 /P b 1), climate conditions played a more important role for cases of m N 2 whereas catchment characteristics had a greater impact for cases of m b 2. The annual Q and R c in 14 of the 15 catchments significantly decreased with average reduction of 0.87 mm yr −1 and 0.18% yr −1 , respectively. The mean elasticities of Q to P, E 0 and m were 2.66, −1.66 and −3.17, respectively. The contributions of land use/ cover change and P reduction to decreased Q were 64.75% and 41.55%, respectively, while those to decreased R c were 75.68% and 32.06%, respectively. In contrast, the decreased E 0 resulted in 6.30% and 7.73% increase of Q and R c , respectively. The contribution of land use/cover changes was significantly and positively correlated with the G R A P H I C Contents lists available at ScienceDirectScience of the Total Environment j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / s c i t o t e n v increase in the percentage of the soil and water conservation measures area (p b 0.05). The R c significantly and linearly decreased with the vegetation coverage (p b 0.01). Moreover, the R c linearly decreased with the percentage of measures area in all catchments (eight of them were statistically significant with p b 0.05).

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Section: Budyko Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determining the hydrological responses to climate variability and land use/cover change in the Loess Plateau with the Budyko framework

Gao

Wang

et al. 2016

Science of The Total Environment

195

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“…In addition, the Hai River basin, located in less arid climates than that of the northwest, shows 10 the largest P elasticity in China (Table 2). A similar phenomenon is also introduced in Yang et al (2014). One of the major reasons for this difference may be attributed to the impacts of human activities that alter the patterns of R in these regions.…”

Section: The Estimation Of Elasticitymentioning

confidence: 66%

“…Schaake (1990) made the first attempt to introduce the concept of elasticity and related the climate elasticity of R to precipitation (P). Since then numerous climate elasticity methods have been developed for evaluating the hydrologic response to climate change all over the world (Schaake, 1990;Dooge et al, 1999;Sankarasubramanian et al, 2001;Milly and Dunne, 2002;Fu et al, 2007;Zheng et al, 2009;Ma et al, 2010;Yang and Yang, 2011;Yang et al, 2014;Vano et al, 2015). Sankarasubramanian et al (2001) provided a detailed category of climate elasticity methods for modelling climate change impacts.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More importantly, the Budyko-based elasticity method can derive the climate elasticity and can also represent the impact of the catchment characteristics through the parameters of the Budyko model. Accordingly, it is widely 5 applied for the assessment of the hydrologic impacts of climate change (Dooge et al, 1999;Zheng et al, 2009;Yang and Yang, 2011;Yang et al, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently Yang et al (2014) investigated the climate elasticity of R for the 210 catchments of China based on the Budyko-based elasticity approach. The results indicated that the P elasticity exhibits a large regional variation, with a small range in southern China, the Songhua River basin and the northwest and a large range in the Hai River basin, 15 the Yellow River basin, and the Liao River basin.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

Wu¹,

Hu²,

Huang³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the 10 alteration of the temporal-spatial patterns of water resources. Based on the long-term water budget data and climate projections from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to historical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.2 to 3.3) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.3 to -0.2) across China. The P 15 elasticity is larger in northeast and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchment properties elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationship with the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in more arid regions. For the period 1960-2012, the climate contribution to R ranges from -2.4 % a -1 to 3.3 % a -1 across China, with the negative contribution in the North China plain and the positive contribution in western China and some parts of the southwest. The results of climate projections indicate that although there is large uncertainty 20 involved in the 28 GCMs, most project a consistent change in P (or PET) in China at the annual scale. For the period 2071-2100, the mean annual P will likely increase in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while the mean annual PET will likely increase in all of China, particularly the southern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions and humid regions of China will likely become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971-2000).25

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An error analysis of the Budyko hypothesis for assessing the contribution of climate change to runoff

Yang

2014

Water Resources Research

Self Cite

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Many previous studies have evaluated the hydrologic response to climate change using the firstorder approximation (first-order Taylor expansion) of the Mezentsev-Choudhury-Yang equation (formulating the Budyko hypothesis), which has a parameter n representing catchment characteristics. However, no studies have paid attention to the error due to the first-order approximation. This study therefore estimates this error to improve the theoretical framework for assessing the contribution of climate change to runoff based on the Budyko hypothesis. Specifically, the error increases when precipitation (P) decreases and potential evaporation (E 0 ) increases, and n increases. Therefore, an increasing P or decreasing E 0 leads to an underestimate of the climatic contributions, while a decreasing P or increasing E 0 leads to an overestimate. In addition, we suggest a new method to accurately estimate the contribution of climate change to runoff.

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The regional variation in climate elasticity and climate contribution to runoff across China

Cited by 155 publications

References 39 publications

Determining the hydrological responses to climate variability and land use/cover change in the Loess Plateau with the Budyko framework

Determining the hydrological responses to climate variability and land use/cover change in the Loess Plateau with the Budyko framework

Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

An error analysis of the Budyko hypothesis for assessing the contribution of climate change to runoff

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