The real-time needs of emergency managers for tropical cyclone storm tide forecasting: results of a participatory stakeholder engagement process

Abstract

Natural hazard forecasting products and associated decision support systems provide emergency managers with key information in real-time situations for making lifecritical decisions on evacuation orders, deployment of response resources and public information campaigns. A stakeholder engagement strategy was used to investigate potential improvements to storm tide forecasting and decision support systems during tropical cyclone events for the case study site of Queensland, Australia. The requirements of the endusers of the system were identified through a comprehensive survey of local government disaster management staff. The survey assessed their use of the current system, soliciting suggestions for improvements and identifying 'lessons learnt' from recent extreme events. Analysis of the survey responses highlights issues with and opportunities for improvement to storm tide forecasting products, including improving spatial resolution and visualisation of warning information and improving the complexity of communication of uncertainty. In particular, the key dilemma between forecast uncertainty and the long timelines required for effective evacuation was highlighted. The survey responses and analysis present a unique insight into stakeholder requirements and will enable user-driven development of a future warning system rather than a forecast-driven product. Broader recommendations for improvement to the storm tide emergency management process derived from the survey include continuous improvement in the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasting and improving the capacity of both disaster managers and the community to reduce response times to storm tide threat through education and long-term planning decisions.

Understanding the decision-making process in disaster risk monitoring and early-warning: A case study within a control room in Brazil

“…In line with past works that investigated failure chain of control rooms [9,59,60], this work enlarges the importance of a decision-making process for control rooms as a means of reducing possible errors. This also supplements other research that is focused on investigating the uncertainties that face the decision-makers for disaster management [35,14,10]. As participants mentioned during th e focus group sessions, operators feel more convincing when they recognize the full scope of their activities (i.e., the required information, data sources, and decision rules).…”

Coastal decision‐makers’ perspectives on updating storm surge guidance tools

“…This finding applies to real‐time data during storm events and to longer‐term discontinuous changes (eg information about shoreline movement or location of wave mitigation structures). Such updating would also address recommendations in previous research that focus on data accuracy and clearly communicating about uncertainty (Burston et al, 2015; Schwanenberg et al, 2018), as well as the acknowledgement that collaborative local approaches to hazard mapping can yield valuable actionable information (Sanders et al, 2020).…”

“…There is extensive literature on the value of obtaining user input in the process of developing communication tools, including computational models and tools for risk communication. User input can help developers improve the operation and comprehension of their products (Burston, Ware, & Tomlinson, 2015; Lathrop et al, 2014; Mirel, 1998; Pasquier et al, 2020) and promote product acceptance and adoption by building trust (Little, Loggins, & Wallace, 2015) and increasing credibility (Addison et al, 2013). The involvement of decision‐makers in tool development also allows assessments to be made in a timelier fashion due to their familiarization with the tool (Kolen & Helsloot, 2012).…”

Gamifying Community Education for Enhanced Disaster Resilience: An Effectiveness Testing Study from Australia

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