Coastal decision‐makers’ perspectives on updating storm surge guidance tools

DeLorme, Denise E.; Stephens, Sonia H.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, Scott C.

doi:10.1111/1468-5973.12291

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Contingencies & Crisis Mgmt

2020

DOI: 10.1111/1468-5973.12291

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Coastal decision‐makers’ perspectives on updating storm surge guidance tools

Denise E. DeLorme

Sonia H. Stephens

Matthew V. Bilskie

et al.

Abstract: Coastal managers and other stakeholders use visualization tools based on computational models to support hazard-related decision-making. Since the 1990s, there has been much progress on the development of computational models designed to simulate tides and storm surge (Bilskie et al., 2016;Bunya et al., 2010). Although some stakeholder assessments of models and related visualization tools designed to communicate tide and surge results exist (eg U.S.

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Cited by 3 publications

References 41 publications

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Exploring the integration of local and scientific knowledge in early warning systems for disaster risk reduction: a review

Hermans

Trogrlić

Homberg³

et al. 2022

Nat Hazards

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The occurrence and intensity of some natural hazards (e.g. hydro-meteorological) increase due to climate change, with growing exposure and socio-economic vulnerability, leading to mounting risks. In response, Disaster Risk Reduction policy and practice emphasize people-centred Early Warning Systems (EWS). Global policies stress the need for including local knowledge and increasing the literature on integrating local and scientific knowledge for EWS. In this paper, we present a review to understand and outline how local and scientific knowledge integration is framed in EWS, namely: (1) existing integration approaches, (2) where in the EWS integration happens, (3) outcomes, (4) challenges, and (5) enablers. The objective is to critically evaluate integration and highlight critical questions about assumptions, goals, outcomes, and processes. In particular, we unpack the impact of power and knowledges as plural. We find a spectrum of integration between knowledges in EWS, mainly with dichotomy at the start: focus on people or technology. The most popular integration approaches are participatory methods such as ‘GIS mapping’ (technology) and methods that focus on ‘triangulation’ (people). We find that critical analysis of power relations and social interaction is either missed or framed as a challenge within integration processes. Knowledge is often seen as binary, embedded in the concept of ‘integration’. It is important to know what different knowledges can and cannot do in different contexts and acknowledge the hybrid reality of knowledge used for EWS. We argue that how we approach different knowledges in EWS has fundamental implications for the approaches to integration and its meaning. To this end, attention to the social processes, power dynamics, and context is crucial.

show abstract

Exploring the integration of local and scientific knowledge in early warning systems for disaster risk reduction: a review

Hermans

Trogrlić

Homberg³

et al. 2022

Nat Hazards

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Real-Time Simulated Storm Surge Predictions during Hurricane Michael (2018)

Bilskie

Asher

Miller

et al. 2022

Weather and Forecasting

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Storm surge caused by tropical cyclones can cause overland flooding and lead to loss of life while damaging homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure. In 2018, Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, FL, on 10 October with peak wind speeds near 71.9 m s-1 (161 mph) and storm surge over 4.5 m NAVD88. During Hurricane Michael, water levels and waves were predicted near real-time using a deterministic, depth-averaged, high-resolution ADCIRC+SWAN model of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The model was forced with an asymmetrical parametric vortex model (GAHM) based on Michael's National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track and strength. The authors report errors between simulated and observed water level time-series, peak water level, and timing of peak for NHC Advisories. Forecasts of water levels were within 0.5 m of observations, and the timing of peak water levels was within 1 hr as early as 48 hr before Michaels eventual landfall. We also examined the effect of adding far-field meteorology in our TC vortex model for use in real-time forecasts. In general, we found that including far-field meteorology by blending the TC vortex with a basin-scale NWP product improved water level forecasts. However, we note that divergence between the NHC forecast track and the forecast track of the meteorological model supplying the far-field winds represents a potential limitation to operationalizing a blended wind field surge product. The approaches and data reported herein provide a transparent assessment of water level forecasts during Hurricane Michael and highlight potential future improvements for more accurate predictions.

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Enhancing Flood Hazard Assessments in Coastal Louisiana Through Coupled Hydrologic and Surge Processes

et al. 2021

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Traditional coastal flood hazard studies do not typically account for rainfall-runoff processes in quantifying flood hazard and related cascading risks. This study addresses the potential impacts of antecedent rainfall-runoff, tropical cyclone (TC)-driven rainfall, and TC-driven surge on total water levels and its influence in delineating a coastal flood transition zone for two distinct coastal basins in southeastern Louisiana (Barataria and Lake Maurepas watersheds). Rainfall-runoff from antecedent and TC-driven rainfall along with storm surge was simulated using a new rain-on-mesh module incorporated into the ADCIRC code. Antecedent rainfall conditions were obtained for 21 landfalling TC events spanning 1948–2008 via rain stations. A parametric, TC-driven, rainfall model was used for precipitation associated with the TC. Twelve synthetic storms of varying meteorological intensity (low, medium, and high) and total rainfall were utilized for each watershed and provided model forcing for coastal inundation simulations. First, it was found that antecedent rainfall (pre-TC landfall) is influential up to 3 days pre-landfall. Second, results show that antecedent and TC-driven rainfall increase simulated peak water levels within each basin, with antecedent rainfall dominating inundation across the basin's upper portions. Third, the delineated flood zones of coastal, transition, and hydrologic show stark differences between the two basins.

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Coastal decision‐makers’ perspectives on updating storm surge guidance tools

Cited by 3 publications

References 41 publications

Exploring the integration of local and scientific knowledge in early warning systems for disaster risk reduction: a review

Exploring the integration of local and scientific knowledge in early warning systems for disaster risk reduction: a review

Real-Time Simulated Storm Surge Predictions during Hurricane Michael (2018)

Enhancing Flood Hazard Assessments in Coastal Louisiana Through Coupled Hydrologic and Surge Processes

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