The probabilistic approach to solve analytical problems in a life cycle of complex systems for developing and transportation hydrocarbon deposits of Arctic regions

Risks Prediction and Processes Optimization for Complex Systems on the Base of Probabilistic Modeling

“…Using a more adequate PDF (for example, created by models from part 3, that considers frequency of occurrence and development of different threats, real protection processes against dangerous influences and the real complex structure of system), extraction of following knowledge is possible (see Figure 1) [12][13][14]:…”

The method of rational dispatching a sequence of heterogeneous repair works

“…For modelling and estimations, software tools complexes CEISOQ [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] Results of the analysis have shown that at the expense of the choice of rational dispatcher Technology 5 and its optimizing parameters the relative portion of well-timed performed calls is 3 times greater in comparison with the today applied Technologies 1 and 4. And the value of damages can be really reduced!…”

“…For estimations of these metrics (Т full.i and Т full.i2 ) with reference to Technologies 1, 2, and 3 it is purposed to use classical models of the queueing theory [1][2]4]. For Technologies 4 and 5, the formulas received earlier in works [3,[5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] are applicable. Thus, frequencies of arriving calls (λ i ) and the average time of performing calls of i-th type (β i1 ) form an input for modelling.…”

“…Thus, frequencies of arriving calls (λ i ) and the average time of performing calls of i-th type (β i1 ) form an input for modelling. Evaluations can be carried out with the use of software tools complexes, for example the software tools Complex for Evaluation of Information Systems Operation Quality (CEISOQ) -"know how" (registered by Rospatent N2000610272), "Mathematical modelling of system life cycle processes" -"know how" (registered by Rospatent N2004610858), "Complex for evaluating quality of production processes" (registered by Rospatent N2010614145) [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23].…”

“…In the present article, a possibility of increasing the relative portion of well-timed performance of calls at the expense of optimization of the sequence of their performance is researched. The proposed method is based on the comparison and rational use of essentially differing properties of the following dispatcher technologies: technology for performing calls by the consecutive order "first in, first out" (FIFO) without priorities, technologies with relative and absolute priorities, technology of batch performing, and the multi-parameter technology with a combination of the listed technologies (the two last technologies have been researched earlier by authors of this article in other applications [3,[5][6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]). …”