The price behavior of the MGO bunker market: An integrated causality and interpretive structural modeling approach

Abstract

Marine fuel price differences of supply centers have a significant effect on operators’ budgets, and so are closely monitored by traders, charterers and shipowners. The aim of this study is to determine the volatility spillovers between the prices of the major fuel centers in the world and to form a hierarchical structure based on the influence and dependence powers of these centers. For this purpose, an integrated structure of causality in variance and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) methods are used. The data set used in this study includes marine gas oil (MGO) prices for 8 fuel centers used extensively in the world, namely: Fujairah, Hong Kong, Houston, Istanbul, New York, Piraeus, Rotterdam, and Singapore. This data consists of 782 daily observations covering a 3-year-period between 14.04.2017 and 13.04.2020. The ISM results reveal that these fuel centers lie at 6 different levels based on their driving and dependence powers, sources of price volatility in the market are Fujairah and Singapore, and the center that is most affected by volatility is Piraeus. In addition to drawing a macro frame for the fuel market, the results obtained are thought to be useful in reducing risk in the market due to uncertainty for stakeholders.