Ship demolition market helps to balance over supply in shipping market. Some factors accelerate and some factors slow down this process. Freight revenues are one of the most important factor that directly affect this process. Because even the old and obsolete ships can survive and carry out their operations profitably in buoyant market with high freight rates. In this context, this study aims to contribute existing literature by presenting an econometric analysis of the relationship between freight revenues and ship disposal decisions. Total tonnage sent to the demolition and Baltic Dry Index (BDI) variables are chosen, and annual data between 1985 and 2015 is used in the model. BDI is selected as a representative of freight revenues due to data constraint. Total tonnage sent to the scrapping is taken as a result of the decision to send ships to disposal. Correlation and regression analysis are conducted to determine the econometric relationship between variables. The results verifies the negative relationship between freight revenues and vessel disposal decisions.

Dry bulk shipping is influenced mainly by demand for commodities due to its derived demand structure. As one of the main determinants of the commodity demand is the price, interactions between commodity prices and freight rates are inevitable. However, the relevant literature is limited and information asymmetry is not taken into account. The aim of this study is to examine the asymmetric causality from the prices of the commodities mostly transported in Istanbul Freight Index (ISTFIX) region to the freight rates by method developed by Hatemi-J (2012a). The dataset consists of 122 monthly observations covering the dates between January 2008 and February 2018. The results reveal that positive and negative shocks in coal and steel prices are symmetrically causes of the positive and negative shocks in ISTFIX while negative shocks in wheat prices are cause of positive shocks in the index, and positive shocks in the commodity are the causes of negative shocks in the index.

Not: İsimler, akademik ünvan ve alfabetik sıra gözetilerek sıralanmıştır. yılı 2. sayıdan itibaren dergimiz uluslararası endekslerde taranmaktadırDergide yayınlanan yazılardaki görüşler ve bu konudaki sorumluluk yazarlarına aittir.Yayınlanan eserlerde yer alan içerikler kaynak gösterilmeden kullanılamaz.All the opinions written in articles are under responsibilities of the authors. The published contents in the articles cannot be used without being cited. Makalenin on-line kopyasına erişmek için / To reach the on-line copy of article: http://dergipark.gov.tr/uiibd GEMİ İNŞA AKTİVİTELERİNİN NAVLUN ORANLARINA TEPKİSİ Sadık Özlen BAŞER* Abdullah AÇIK** ÖZET: Deniz taşımacılığının diğer çoğu piyasadan farklı ekonomik özellikleri mevcuttur. Bu özellikler piyasada sürekli döngüsel hareketlerin yaşanmasına ve yanlış kararlar alan işletmelerin piyasadan silinmesine neden olmaktadır. Bu döngülere talep tarafındaki değişmelerin dışında en büyük etkiyi arz tarafının kısa dönemde inelastik olması katkıda bulunmaktadır. Bunun nedeni de gemi inşa sürecinin 1-3 yıl arasında sürebilmesi, ve bugün alınan sipariş kararının etkilerinin inşa süreci bittiğinde piyasaya yansımasıdır. Bu doğrultuda yatırım kararını etkileyen ana unsur gelir olduğu için, navlun oranlarıyla tamamlanan gemi tonajı arasında gecikmeli bir ilişki olması muhakkaktır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, teoride yerleşmiş olan bu gecikmeli ilişkiyi ampirik olarak test ederek mevcut literature katkıda bulunmaktır. Navlun gelirlerinin bir temsilcisi olarak navlun fiyatlarını baz alan Baltık Kuru Yük Endeksi (BKYE) kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan veri 1985 ve 2017 yıllarını kapsayan yıllık gözlemlerden oluşmaktadır. Navlun gelirleriyle tamamlanan tonaj arasındaki ilişkiyi tespit etmek için korelasyon, regresyon ve çapraz korelason yöntemleri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda tonajın gelirlerdeki değişime 2 yıl sonra tepki verdiği ve değişkenler arasında pozitif yönlü bir ilişki olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

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Fluctuations of freight income and volatility of bunker prices are together having an important impact on shipping profits because oil, which is the main source of bunker fuel, constitutes substantial operational expense to shipping firms, and it accounts for 34-44% of the whole operation costs. However, as the freight rates in live market conditions are determined by demand, the determinative characteristics of bunker price loses its importance. In this respect, it is not wrong to say that the relationship between bunker prices and freight rates changes according to time. Therefore, with the aim of filling the gap in the related literature, the relationship between these two variables is examined by time-variance causality analysis. The data set used in the study consists of 318 observations on a monthly basis covering the period January 1992 to June 2018. As a result of the study 24 causality periods with lengths ranging from 1 month to 13 months are determined. Also, it is spotted that they are intersected with BDI in the declining regions of the index in general and this result confirms that the causality between the freight rates and the bunker prices is realized in the stagnant market conditions.

The ship demolition sector is one of the major suppliers of the steel market, even though its share in the total scrap market is very small. As the sector is a supplier of the steel market, it is inevitable that the price changes will be reflected in the construction sector, which is one of the largest steel customers. In this context, it is aimed in this study to determine whether the changes in demolition prices of Turkey, which is one of the main ship demolition locations in the world, have an effect on the construction costs in the country. In order to investigate possible relationships, Turkish demolition prices and Construction Cost Index (CCI) variables are used. The dataset covers the dates between January 2015 and December 2018, and consists of 48 monthly observations. Asymmetric causality test is used to determine the causal relationship between the variables by separating the shocks they contain as positive and negative. The econometric relationship is analyzed with both the USD currency price offered by Turkish demolition businesses and the corresponding TL currency prices in order to diversify the results. According to the results, causality relation from positive shocks in USD based demolition prices to the positive shocks in construction costs index is determined. In addition, there are causalities from positive shocks in TL based demolition prices to the positive shocks in construction cost index, and from negative shocks in demolition prices to the negative shocks in the index. This situation shows that the foreign exchange rates also play an important role in shaping the costs of the construction sector.