The Precautionary Principle and the Uncertainty Paradox

Asselt, M.B.A. van; Vos, Ellen

doi:10.1080/13669870500175063

Cited by 131 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Such individual and collective interpretations of risks lead to decisions about why and how we live in landscapes of uncertainty (Thompson and Warburton 1985;Macnaghten 2003;Robbins and Moore 2013). Uncertainty tends to be categorised as epistemic -derived from incomplete knowledge, or aleatory -a product of intrinsic natural variability (sometimes called 'natural stochastic uncertainty', or 'variability uncertainty') (Walker et al 2003;Patt and Dessai 2005; van Asselt and Vos 2006). In the climate change literature, aleatory uncertainty is part of a category of 'unknowable knowledge', which includes the 'human reflexive uncertainty' in response to climatic change and the uncertain outcomes of such actions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

Sword-Daniels

Eriksen

Doyle

et al. 2016

Journal of Risk Research

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

Sword-Daniels

Eriksen

Doyle

et al. 2016

Journal of Risk Research

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“…We took a delicate position according to a "preventive approach" [19][20][21][22][23] in order to provide information useful to the decision making process even if scientifically questionable, as several assumptions need to be supported by evidence yet lacking. We think this is a sensible choice, as a more scientifically prudent approach requiring more data (which would be available possibly in 10 or 20 years from now if a coordinated research effort were put into place immediately) and more scientific evidence would miss the purpose of a timely contribution to a balanced country development.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Qualitative Hydro-Geomorphic Prediction of the Destiny of the Mojana Region (Magdalena-Cauca Basin, Colombia), to Inform Large Scale Decision Making

Nardini¹,

Idarraga

2016

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Abstract:Colombia is undergoing a period of rapid development. In particular, the Magdalena-Cauca Rivers basin, and the Mojana region within it, is going to experience rapid expansion in infrastructure growth, entailing hydropower development, road and navigability works along hundreds of kilometers of channels, as well as standard flood control measures. This paper argues that unexpected and undesired outcomes are very likely to occur as a consequence of the hydraulic and geomorphological reaction of river systems to such development schemes; namely, we foresee heightened hydro-morphological risks, along with the loss of environmental services and strong increases in maintenance costs. River behavior has been the subject of extensive study by diverse disciplines. As a result, key principles of fluvial dynamics have been elucidated and specific quantitative prediction tools developed. In this paper we do rely on this wealth of knowledge. However, since specific local information and interpretative tools in Colombia are either lacking or unreliable, it is inevitable that, at the moment, any basin scale analysis has to remain qualitative and must incorporate several assumptions, leaving it open to questioning and further refinement. Nonetheless, we argue that advancing such type of speculative conjectures is the "right thing to do". The undeniably desirable but hard to achieve alternative of waiting for sufficient datasets and tools would entail excessive delay in obtaining relevant answers while large-scale development would continue to occur with potentially damaging results. Therefore, our analysis is conceived along the precautionary principle. This paper is primarily aimed at technical advisors of policy makers as it offers scientifically-based arguments for informing the political debate, hopefully guiding decision makers towards better choices. Rather than advocating specific solutions, the focus is on pointing out the likely adverse consequences of the currently planned course of action.

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“…Such an ethics calls for modesty, responsibility and time of reflection when facing complex systems for we cannot perfectly understand and control them. This is not without reminding the precautionary principle, which, however, without an acceptance of uncertainties and responsibility, can eventually lead to inaction [47]. Indeed, as Cilliers and Preiser [8] have written: "The lack of complete knowledge does not mean that we should not act, but it does mean that we should do so with modesty […].…”

Section: Ethical Risk Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%