The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti

Monaghan, Andrew J.; Sampson, K. M.; Steinhoff, Daniel F.; Ernst, Kacey C.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Jones, Benjamin A.; Hayden, Mary H.

doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1679-0

Cited by 73 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…aegypti is generally consistent with other recent prediction maps (Capinha et al 2014, Khormi and Kumar 2014, Campbell et al 2015, Kraemer et al 2015a, Monaghan et al 2016a, b). Overall, our model predicted more extensive suitability in the western United States compared with these previous efforts, a result that may be related to the inclusion of very recent records following the introduction and spread of the mosquito in California.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

Johnson

Haque

Monaghan

et al. 2017

Journal of Medical Entomology

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The mosquitoes Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.)(Diptera:Culicidae) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae) transmit dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses and represent a growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established. To complement existing mosquito presence records based on discontinuous, non-systematic surveillance efforts, we developed county-scale environmental suitability maps for both species using maximum entropy modeling to fit climatic variables to county presence records from 1960–2016 in the contiguous United States. The predictive models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus had an overall accuracy of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. Cumulative growing degree days (GDDs) during the winter months, an indicator of overall warmth, was the most important predictive variable for both species and was positively associated with environmental suitability. The number (percentage) of counties classified as environmentally suitable, based on models with 90 or 99% sensitivity, ranged from 1,443 (46%) to 2,209 (71%) for Ae. aegypti and from 1,726 (55%) to 2,329 (75%) for Ae. albopictus. Increasing model sensitivity results in more counties classified as suitable, at least for summer survival, from which there are no mosquito records. We anticipate that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus will be found more commonly in counties classified as suitable based on the lower 90% sensitivity threshold compared with the higher 99% threshold. Counties predicted suitable with 90% sensitivity should therefore be a top priority for expanded mosquito surveillance efforts while still keeping in mind that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may be introduced, via accidental transport of eggs or immatures, and potentially proliferate during the warmest part of the year anywhere within the geographic areas delineated by the 99% sensitivity model.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

Johnson

Haque

Monaghan

et al. 2017

Journal of Medical Entomology

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“…So far, these studies have been conducted in the fields of food security and hunger risks [53,[63][64][65][66][67][68][69], fire risk [70], exposure to vector-borne diseases [71,72], water scarcity [73][74][75][76][77][78], flood risks [79][80][81], air pollution risks [82,83], and heat-related health impacts [84][85][86][87][88][89][90][91][92][93][94][95][96][97].…”

Section: Integration Within Climate-related Health Impact Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Rohat¹

2018

Preprint

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The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are the new global development trends that inform global and regional climate change research. They have the potential to foster the integration of socioeconomic scenarios within assessments of future climate-related health impacts. To date, such assessments have primarily superimposed climate scenarios on current socioeconomic conditions only. Until now, the few assessments of future health risks that employed the SSPs have focused on future human exposure—i.e., mainly future population patterns—neglecting future human vulnerability. This paper first explores the research gaps—mainly linked to the paucity of available projections—that explain such a lack of consideration of human vulnerability under the SSPs. It then highlights the need for projections of socioeconomic variables covering the wide range of determinants of human vulnerability, available at relevant spatial and temporal scales, and accounting for local specificities through sectoral and regional extended versions of the global SSPs. Finally, this paper presents two innovative methods of obtaining and computing such socioeconomic projections under the SSPs—namely the scenario matching approach and an approach based on experts’ elicitation and correlation analyses—and applies them to the case of Europe. They offer a variety of possibilities for practical application, producing projections at sub-national level of various drivers of human vulnerability such as demographic and social characteristics, urbanization, state of the environment, infrastructure, health status, and living arrangements. Both the innovative approaches presented in this paper and existing methods—such as the spatial disaggregation of existing projections and the use of sectoral models—show great potential to enhance the availability of relevant projections of determinants of human vulnerability. Assessments of future climate-related health impacts should thus rely on these methods to account for future human vulnerability—under varying levels of socioeconomic development—and to explore its influence on future health risks under different degrees of climate change.

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“…Jones et al (2018) and Monaghan et al (2015) model future population exposure to health risks, in the first case to rural and urban heat waves, and in the second case to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti, which can transmit the viruses responsible for dengue fever, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever. Anderson et al (2016a, b) go beyond exposure to model the occurrence of Bhigh mortality^heat waves in the USA-those anticipated to lead to a more than 20% increase in mortality rates.…”

Section: The Brace Special Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

An introduction to the special issue on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE)

O’Neill

Gettelman

2018

Climatic Change

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The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti

Cited by 73 publications

References 55 publications

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

An introduction to the special issue on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE)

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