The mosquitoes Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.)(Diptera:Culicidae) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae) transmit dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses and represent a growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established. To complement existing mosquito presence records based on discontinuous, non-systematic surveillance efforts, we developed county-scale environmental suitability maps for both species using maximum entropy modeling to fit climatic variables to county presence records from 1960–2016 in the contiguous United States. The predictive models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus had an overall accuracy of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. Cumulative growing degree days (GDDs) during the winter months, an indicator of overall warmth, was the most important predictive variable for both species and was positively associated with environmental suitability. The number (percentage) of counties classified as environmentally suitable, based on models with 90 or 99% sensitivity, ranged from 1,443 (46%) to 2,209 (71%) for Ae. aegypti and from 1,726 (55%) to 2,329 (75%) for Ae. albopictus. Increasing model sensitivity results in more counties classified as suitable, at least for summer survival, from which there are no mosquito records. We anticipate that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus will be found more commonly in counties classified as suitable based on the lower 90% sensitivity threshold compared with the higher 99% threshold. Counties predicted suitable with 90% sensitivity should therefore be a top priority for expanded mosquito surveillance efforts while still keeping in mind that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may be introduced, via accidental transport of eggs or immatures, and potentially proliferate during the warmest part of the year anywhere within the geographic areas delineated by the 99% sensitivity model.

Plague is an exotic vector-borne disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis that causes mortality rates approaching 100% in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus). We mapped the perimeter of the active portions of black-tailed prairie dog colonies annually between 1999 and 2005 at four prairie dog colony complexes in areas with a history of plague, as well as at two complexes that were located outside the distribution of plague at the time of mapping and had therefore never been affected by the disease. We hypothesized that the presence of plague would significantly reduce overall black-tailed prairie dog colony area, reduce the sizes of colonies on these landscapes, and increase nearest-neighbor distances between colonies. Within the region historically affected by plague, individual colonies were smaller, nearest-neighbor distances were greater, and the proportion of potential habitat occupied by active prairie dog colonies was smaller than at plague-free sites. Populations that endured plague were composed of fewer large colonies (>100 ha) than populations that were historically plague free. We suggest that these differences among sites in colony size and isolation may slow recolonization after extirpation. At the same time, greater intercolony distances may also reduce intercolony transmission of pathogens. Reduced transmission among smaller and more distant colonies may ultimately enhance long-term prairie dog population persistence in areas where plague is present.

Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are a key component of the disturbance regime in semi-arid grasslands of central North America. Many studies have compared community and ecosystem characteristics on prairie dog colonies to grasslands without prairie dogs, but little is known about landscape-scale patterns of disturbance that prairie dog colony complexes may impose on grasslands over long time periods. We examined spatiotemporal dynamics in two prairie dog colony complexes in southeastern Colorado (Comanche) and northcentral Montana (Phillips County) that have been strongly influenced by plague, and compared them to a complex unaffected by plague in northwestern Nebraska (Oglala). Both plague-affected complexes exhibited substantial spatiotemporal variability in the area occupied during a decade, in contrast to the stability of colonies in the Oglala complex. However, the plague-affected complexes differed in spatial patterns of colony movement. Colonies in the Comanche complex in shortgrass steppe shifted locations over a decade. Only 10% of the area occupied in 1995 was still occupied by prairie dogs in 2006. In 2005 and 2006 respectively, 74 and 83% of the total area of the Comanche complex occurred in locations that were not occupied in 1995, and only 1% of the complex was occupied continuously over a decade. In contrast, prairie dogs in the Phillips County complex in mixed-grass prairie and sagebrush steppe primarily recolonized previously occupied areas after plague-induced colony declines. In Phillips County, 62% of the area occupied in 1993 was also occupied by prairie dogs in 2004, and 12% of the complex was occupied continuously over a decade. Our results indicate that plague accelerates spatiotemporal movement of prairie dog colonies, and have significant implications for The U.S. Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royaltyfree license in and to any copyright is acknowledged. 123Landscape Ecol (2008) 23:255-267 DOI 10.1007 landscape-scale effects of prairie dog disturbance on grassland composition and productivity. These findings highlight the need to combine landscape-scale measures of habitat suitability with long-term measures of colony locations to understand the role of plague-affected prairie dogs as a grassland disturbance process.

Ixodes scapularis Say, the black-legged tick, is the primary vector in the eastern United States of several pathogens causing human diseases including Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, and babesiosis. Over the past two decades, I. scapularis-borne diseases have increased in incidence as well as geographic distribution. Lyme disease exists in two major foci in the United States, one encompassing northeastern states and the other in the Upper Midwest. Minnesota represents a state with an appreciable increase in counties reporting I. scapularis-borne illnesses, suggesting geographic expansion of vector populations in recent years. Recent tick distribution records support this assumption. Here, we used those records to create a fine resolution, subcounty-level distribution model for I. scapularis using variable response curves in addition to tests of variable importance. The model identified 19% of Minnesota as potentially suitable for establishment of the tick and indicated with high accuracy (AUC = 0.863) that the distribution is driven by land cover type, summer precipitation, maximum summer temperatures, and annual temperature variation. We provide updated records of established populations near the northwestern species range limit and present a model that increases our understanding of the potential distribution of I. scapularis in Minnesota.

Vector-borne diseases represent a threat to human and wildlife populations and mathematical models provide a means to understand and control epidemics involved in complex host-vector systems. The disease model studied here is a host-vector system with a relapsing class of host individuals, used to investigate tick-borne relapsing fever (TBRF). Equilibrium analysis is performed for models with increasing numbers of relapses and multiple hosts and the disease reproduction number, R0, is generalized to establish relationships with parameters that would result in the elimination of the disease. We show that host relapses in a single competent host-vector system is needed to maintain an endemic state. We show that the addition of an incompetent second host with no relapses increases the number of relapses needed for maintaining the pathogen in the first competent host system. Further, coupling of the system with hosts of differing competencies will always reduce R0, making it more difficult for the system to reach an endemic state.

Tick-borne pathogens transmitted by Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae), also known as the deer tick or blacklegged tick, are increasing in incidence and geographic distribution in the United States. We examined the risk of tick-borne disease exposure in 9 national parks across six Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States and the District of Columbia in 2014 and 2015. To assess the recreational risk to park visitors, we sampled for ticks along frequently used trails and calculated the density of I. scapularis nymphs (DON) and the density of infected nymphs (DIN). We determined the nymphal infection prevalence of I. scapularis with a suite of tick-borne pathogens including Borrelia burgdorferi, Borrelia miyamotoi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti. Ixodes scapularis nymphs were found in all national park units; DON ranged from 0.40 to 13.73 nymphs per 100 m2. Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease, was found at all sites where I. scapularis was documented; DIN with B. burgdorferi ranged from 0.06 to 5.71 nymphs per 100 m2. Borrelia miyamotoi and A. phagocytophilum were documented at 60% and 70% of the parks, respectively, while Ba. microti occurred at just 20% of the parks. Ixodes scapularis is well established across much of the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic States, and our results are generally consistent with previous studies conducted near the areas we sampled. Newly established I. scapularis populations were documented in two locations: Washington, D.C. (Rock Creek Park) and Greene County, Virginia (Shenandoah National Park). This research demonstrates the potential risk of tick-borne pathogen exposure in national parks and can be used to educate park visitors about the importance of preventative actions to minimize tick exposure.

In the north-central United States, the blacklegged tick (Ixodes scapularis) is currently known to vector seven human pathogens. These include five bacteria (Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, Borrelia mayonii, Borrelia miyamotoi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Ehrlichia muris eauclairensis), one protozoan (Babesia microti) and one virus (Powassan). We sought to assess the prevalence and distribution of these pathogens in host-seeking nymphs collected throughout Minnesota, a state on the northwestern edge of the tick's expanding range, where reported cases of I. scapularis-borne diseases have increased in incidence and geographic range over the past decade. Among the 1240 host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs that we screened from 64 sites, we detected all seven pathogens at varying frequencies. Borrelia burgdorferi s.s. was the most prevalent and geographically widespread, found in 25.24% of all nymphs tested. Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Babesia microti were also geographically widespread, but they were less prevalent than Bo. burgdorferi s.s. (detected in 6.29% and 4.68% of ticks, respectively). Spatial clusters of sites with high prevalence for these three pathogens were identified in the north-central region of the state. Prevalence was less than 1.29% for each of the remaining pathogens. Two or more pathogens were detected in 90 nymphs (7.26%); coinfections with Bo. burgdorferi s.s. and either A. phagocytophilum (51 nymphs, 4.11%) or Ba. microti (43 nymphs, 3.47%) were the most common combinations. The distribution and density of infected ticks mirrors the distribution of notifiable tick-borne diseases in Minnesota and provides information on the distribution and prevalence of recently described human pathogens.

Tick-borne relapsing fever in western North America is a zoonosis caused by the spirochete bacterium, Borrelia hermsii, which is transmitted by the bite of infected Ornithodoros hermsi ticks. The pathogen is maintained in natural cycles involving small rodent hosts such as chipmunks and tree squirrels, as well as the tick vector. In order for these ticks to establish sustained and viable populations, a narrow set of environmental parameters must exist, primarily moderate temperatures and moderate to high amounts of precipitation. Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Modeling (Maxent) was used to predict the species distribution of O. hermsi and B. hermsii through time and space based on current climatic trends and future projected climate changes. From this modeling process, we found that the projected current distributions of both the tick and spirochete align with known endemic foci for the disease. Further, global climate models predict a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat for the tick vector to higher elevations. Our predictions are useful for targeting surveillance efforts in areas of high risk in western North America, increasing the efficiency and accuracy of public health investigations and vector control efforts.