The Potential for Seasonal Forecasting of Winter Wave Heights in the Northern North Sea

Abstract

The height of waves at North Sea oil and gas installations is an important factor governing the degree to which operational activities may be undertaken at those facilities. A link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter (defined as December-February) wave heights at North Sea oil and gas installations has been established. A tool has been developed that uses a forecast NAO index to predict the proportions of wave heights in four categories that could be used to assess the operational downtime that will be experienced in the coming winter. The wave height forecasting system is shown to have useful skill in predicting the probability of occurrence of a stormy winter, and therefore probability forecasts provide a potentially useful guide to whether more or less disruption than the ''climatological mean'' might be experienced. The main limit on the skill of the wave forecasts is our very limited ability to accurately predict the NAO index on seasonal time scales.

Role of Atmospheric Indices in Describing Inshore Directional Wave Climate in the United Kingdom and Ireland

“…For example, Wang et al (2017) used multiple linear regression of key discriminant variables (sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature) and obtained forecast skill (r) of 0.69-0.71. Combined, these advances suggest that skillful prediction of seasonal and decadal coastal vulnerability may be possible (Colman et al, 2011;Dobrynin et al, 2019), where forecasts of climate indices may provide a valuable tool for managing risk to society due to extreme winter-wave events, wave directional variability and corresponding geomorphological change at the coast.…”

Climatology in support of climate risk management

“…Hydrometeorological extremes that have been the subject of seasonal forecasting attempts include drought (Dutra et al, 2013;Sohn et al, 2013), fire (Khan, 2012;Road et al, 2010;Shabbar et al, 2011), tropical cyclones and hurricanes (Diamond et al, 2012;Kim and Webster, 2010;; tornadoes (Tippet et al 2012); floods, periods of high/low river flow and soil moisture (Shukla and Lettenmeier, 2011;Yuan et al, 2013), dust storms (Tao et al, 2010), ocean wave heights and variability (Colman et al, 2011;Hazeleger et al, 2013), windstorms (Renggli et al, 2011) and extreme temperatures (Barnston and Mason, 2011;Becker et al, 2013;Eade et al, 2012;Hamilton et al, 2012;Hanlon et al, 2013).…”

“…Events falling under the broad category of cyclonic events include tropical cyclones and hurricanes (Diamond et al, 2012;Kim and Webster, 2010;Liu and Chan, 2012;Vecchi et al, 2013), tornadoes (Tippett et al, 2012) and windstorms (Renggli et al, 2011). Efforts have also been made at predicting ocean wave heights and variability (Colman et al, 2011;Hazeleger et al, 2013). Evident in the literature is also a discernible trend in the use of SCF models for forecasting extreme hydrological events encompassing floods, intra-seasonal periods of high/low river flow, soil moisture and snow (Ionita et al, 2014;Salzmann and Mearns, 2012;Shukla and Lettenmaier, 2011;Yuan et al, 2013) and seasonal river flow levels (Bierkens and van Beek, 2009;Mahanama et al, 2012;Robertson and Wang, 2012).…”

Skilful Seasonal Prediction of Ocean Surface Waves in the Atlantic Ocean

“…Lopez and Kirtman (2016) considered El Niño-Southern Oscillation as a potential source of wave height predictability in the West Pacific and Indian Oceans. Colman et al (2011) assessed the potential of a statistical categorized seasonal prediction of wave heights in the northern North Sea using a forecast of the NAO index. Colman et al (2011) assessed the potential of a statistical categorized seasonal prediction of wave heights in the northern North Sea using a forecast of the NAO index.…”