Abstract. The scientific understanding of the Earth's climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models (ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven -especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup ofCorrespondence to: C. D. Jones (chris.d.jones@metoffice.gov.uk) the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the "emissiondriven" RCP experiments were performed.

The scientific understanding of the Earth's climate system, including the central question of how the climate system is likely to respond to human-induced perturbations, is comprehensively captured in GCMs and Earth System Models(ESM). Diagnosing the simulated climate response, and comparing responses across different models, is crucially dependent on transparent assumptions of how the GCM/ESM has been driven – especially because the implementation can involve subjective decisions and may differ between modelling groups performing the same experiment. This paper outlines the climate forcings and setup of the Met Office Hadley Centre ESM, HadGEM2-ES for the CMIP5 set of centennial experiments. We document the prescribed greenhouse gas concentrations, aerosol precursors, stratospheric and tropospheric ozone assumptions, as well as implementation of land-use change and natural forcings for the HadGEM2-ES historical and future experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways. In addition, we provide details of how HadGEM2-ES ensemble members were initialised from the control run and how the palaeoclimate and AMIP experiments, as well as the "emission-driven" RCP experiments were performed

The structural and thermodynamic properties of minerals are strongly affected by cation site-ordering processes. We describe methods to determine the main interatomic interactions that drive the ordering process, which are based on parameterizing model Hamiltonians using empirical interatomic potentials and/or ab initio quantum mechanics methods. The methods are illustrated by a number of case study examples, including Al/Si ordering in aluminosilicates, Mg/Ca ordering in garnets, simultaneous Al/Si and Mg/Al ordering in pyroxenes, micas and amphiboles, and Mg/Al non-convergent ordering in spinel using only quantum mechanical methods.

The impacts of winter weather on transport networks have been highlighted by various high-profile disruptions to road, rail, and air transport in the United Kingdom during recent winters. Recent advances in the predictability of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at seasonal time scales, using the Met Office Global Seasonal forecasting system, version 5 (GloSea5), present a timely opportunity for assessing the long-range predictability of a variety of winter-weather impacts on transport. This study examines the relationships between the observed and forecast NAO and a variety of U.K. winter impacts on transport in the road, rail, and aviation sectors. The results of this preliminary study show statistically significant relationships between both observed and forecast NAO index and quantities such as road-accident numbers in certain weather conditions, weather-related delays to flights leaving London Heathrow Airport, and weather-related incidents on the railway network. This supports the feasibility of the onward goal of this work, which is to investigate prototype seasonal forecasts of the relative risk of occurrence of particular impacts in a given winter for the United Kingdom, at lead times of 1–3 months. In addition, subject to the availability of relevant impacts data, there is scope for further work to make similar assessments for other parts of Europe and North America where the NAO has a strong effect on winter climate.

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This paper reviews recent applications of Monte Carlo methods for the study of cation ordering in minerals. We describe the program Ossia99, designed for the simulation of complex ordering processes and for use on parallel computers. A number of applications for the study of long-range and short-range order are described, including the use of the Monte Carlo methods to compute quantities measured in an NMR experiment. The method of thermodynamic integration for the determination of the free energy is described in some detail, and several applications of the method to determine the thermodynamics of disordered systems are outlined.

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For those involved in planning for regional and local scale changes in future climate, there is a requirement for climate information to be available in a context more usually associated with meteorological timescales. Here we combine a tool used in numerical weather prediction, the 30 weather patterns produced by the Met Office, which are already applied operationally to numerical weather prediction models, to assess changes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Global ensemble. Through assessing projected changes in the frequency of the weather patterns at the end of the 21st Century, we determine that future changes in large-scale circulation tend towards an increase in winter of weather patterns associated with cyclonic and westerly wind conditions at the expense of more anticyclonic, settled/blocked weather patterns. In summer, the results indicate a shift towards an increase in dry settled weather types with a corresponding reduction in the wet and windy weather types. Climatologically this suggests a shift towards warmer, wetter winters and warmer, drier summers; which is consistent with the headline findings from the UK Climate Projections 2018. This paper represents the first evaluation of weather patterns analysis within UKCP Global. It provides a detailed assessment of the changes in these weather patterns through the 21st Century and how uncertainty in emissions, structural and perturbed parameters affects these results. We show that the use of these weather patterns in tandem with the UKCP projections is useful for future work investigating changes in a range of weather-related climate features such as extreme precipitation.