The Potential Distribution of the Potato Tuber Moth (Phthorimaea Operculella) Based on Climate and Host Availability of Potato

Jung, Jaemin; Lee, Sang-Geui; Kim, Kwang‐Ho; Jeon, Sung-Wook; Jung, Sunghoon; Lee, Wang‐Hee

doi:10.3390/agronomy10010012

Cited by 15 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 46 publications

(77 reference statements)

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“…The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report notes that global warming has been accelerating since 1951, with the average global temperature rising by 0.12 • C per decade [2]. Climate change has significant impacts on open agro-ecosystems, especially on agricultural production, crop growth and yield formation in ecologically fragile areas, such as arid and semi-arid lands [3][4][5]. Understanding the impact of climate change on crop yields is required to ensure global food security [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Recent Climate Change on Potato Yields at a Provincial Scale in Northwest China

Zhang

2020

Agronomy

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Understanding the effects of climate change on potato yield is vital for food security in northwest China. Based on the long-term data of yields and meteorology, this study analysed the impacts of recent climate change on potato yields at a provincial scale in northwest China. The first difference method was used to disentangle the contributions of climate change from the changes in potato yield in two consecutive years. The moving average method was used to decouple the climate-induced yield of potato. The results showed that the yield and planting area of potato from the period 1982 to 2015 increased markedly, with inter-annual fluctuations. The temperature increased significantly during the potato growing period in northwest China, while other climatic factors did not change significantly. Specifically, the changing trends in climatic factors varied among different provinces. The key meteorological factors limiting potato yield were temperature, precipitation and diurnal temperature range, varying in the different provinces. Potato yields in Gansu, Shaanxi, Ningxia and Xinjiang decreased by 127, 289, 199 and 339 kg ha−1, respectively, for every 1 °C increase in daily maximum temperature. The potato yield in Xinjiang decreased by 583 kg ha−1 for every 1 °C increase in daily minimum temperature. For every 100 mm increase in precipitation, the potato yields in Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia increased by 250, 375 and 182 kg ha−1, respectively. Combining the first difference method and the moving average method, precipitation was the dominant climatic factor affecting potato yield in rain-fed areas (Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia). For areas with irrigation (Xinjiang) or relatively high rainfall (Shaanxi), maximum temperature was the deciding climatic factor affecting potato yield. Appropriate adaptation to climate change in the different regions will help to ensure potato production in northwest China.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Recent Climate Change on Potato Yields at a Provincial Scale in Northwest China

Zhang

2020

Agronomy

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“…Consequently, a significantly larger discrepancy was shown between the GI and seasonal abundance of potato tuber moth collected from the field survey (green lines in Figure 2C,D). In contrast, the CLIMEX parameter without irrigation showed the climatic suitability of the potato tuber moth increased nationally (Figure 2B) and produced a more consistent pattern of the GI over seasonal abundance data compared to the model with irrigation as per Jung et al [39] in both cities (red lines in Figure 2C,D). However, there was a discrepancy during summer seasons in Seogwipo, one of the southernmost regions of South Korea and both models with and without irrigation predicted no growth (GI = 0) from June to October because of high precipitation during summer.…”

Section: Climex Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Climatic suitability (Figure 2A,B), and GI agreement with seasonal abundance from the field survey (Figure 2C,D) are shown. With the parameter values and irrigation applied, as per Jung et al [39], the climatic suitability for the potato tuber moth was low across the country (Figure 2A). Because the potato tuber moth had been observed in most areas in South Korea, we considered that these parameter values did not work correctly.…”

Section: Climex Model Validationmentioning

confidence: 83%

“…We initially employed parameter values from a previous study [39] that predicted the distribution of the potato tuber moth using CLIMEX, but the parameter values did not adequately capture the current known distribution of this species in South Korea. The previous study by Jung et al [39] used an irrigation scenario (2.5 mm/day of top-up irrigation throughout the year) to reflect the irrigation in potato cultivation areas where precipitation was too low to facilitate potato growth. However, precipitation was sufficient to cultivate potatoes in South Korea; as such, we removed the irrigation scenario.…”

Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We selected 2 cities (Seogwipo and Miryang) with the largest population and presented seasonal abundance as the monthly average of the collected moths. The parameter values from Jung et al [39] are presented in Table 1.…”

Section: Parameter Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Changes in Spatiotemporal Distribution of the Potato Tuber Moth (Phthorimaea operculella) in South Korea in Response to Climate Change Determined Using a Field Survey

et al. 2020

Self Cite

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Potato tuber moth (Phthorimaea operculella), one of the leading potato-damaging pests in the world, has caused severe damage to potato production in South Korea after its introduction in the 1960s. This study surveyed the field occurrence of potato tuber moth in various sites in South Korea and used the results to validate the CLIMEX model, which spatiotemporally evaluated the potential distribution of potato tuber moths in response to climate change. The potato tuber moths were predicted to appear throughout the country, consistent with the results obtained for potato tuber moths in 96% of the field survey area. In addition, the climatic suitability of potato tuber moths will remain high due to climate change, suggesting a high risk for damage to seasonal potato production from seeding to harvesting. This spatiotemporal assessment of potato tuber moth distribution is expected to aid in establishing control strategies optimized based on time and place.

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Climate change, host plant availability, and irrigation shape future region‐specific distributions of the Sitobion grain aphid complex

Wang

Hof

Matson

et al. 2023

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUND Understanding where species occur using species distribution models has become fundamental to ecology. Although much attention has been paid to invasive species, questions about climate change related range shifts of widespread insect pests remain unanswered. Here, we incorporated bioclimatic factors and host plant availability into CLIMEX models to predict distributions under future climate scenarios of major cereal pests of the Sitobion grain aphid complex (Sitobion avenae, S. miscanthi, and S. akebiae). Additionally, we incorporated the application of irrigation in our models to explore the relevance of a frequently used management practice that may interact with effects of climate change of the pest distributions. RESULTS Our models predicted that the area potentially at high risk of outbreaks of the Sitobion grain aphid complex would increase from 41.3% to 53.3% of the global land mass. This expansion was underlined by regional shifts in both directions: expansion of risk areas in North America, Europe, most of Asia, and Oceania, and contraction of risk areas in South America, Africa, and Australia. In addition, we found that host plant availability limited the potential distribution of pests, while the application of irrigation expanded it. CONCLUSION Our study provides insights into potential risk areas of insect pests and how climate, host plant availability, and irrigation affect the occurrence of the Sitobion grain aphid complex. Our results thereby support agricultural policy makers, farmers, and other stakeholders in their development and application of management practices aimed at maximizing crop yields and minimizing economic losses. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

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The Potential Distribution of the Potato Tuber Moth (Phthorimaea Operculella) Based on Climate and Host Availability of Potato

Cited by 15 publications

References 46 publications

Impacts of Recent Climate Change on Potato Yields at a Provincial Scale in Northwest China

Impacts of Recent Climate Change on Potato Yields at a Provincial Scale in Northwest China

Changes in Spatiotemporal Distribution of the Potato Tuber Moth (Phthorimaea operculella) in South Korea in Response to Climate Change Determined Using a Field Survey

Climate change, host plant availability, and irrigation shape future region‐specific distributions of the Sitobion grain aphid complex

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